Damaging winds, heavy rain possible: Level 1 & 2 risk for severe storms Thursday ⛈️
After a calm, muggy start, Thursday afternoon and evening brings a Level 1 (out of 5) risk for severe storms – with primary threats including damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state under a Level 1 risk. In northern counties, including Northampton, Halifax and Warren, there is a Level 2 risk for severe storms.
Futurecast shows some storm cells starting to pop up in the early afternoon in Triangle area. By 5 p.m., the heaviest rain should have shifted east of the Triangle. Then, around 10 p.m. the front itself will move through, potentially bringing another small round of showers or storms.
Severe weather alert:
- Severe thunderstorm warning: Orange and Person counties until 5:30 p.m.
- Severe thunderstorm watch: Mecklenburg (VA) County until 9:00 p.m.
"It'll be a hot, sticky, humid afternoon, providing plenty of moisture for approaching storm cells to work with," said WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner.
Once the front passes, less humid air moves in for Friday and Saturday.
- Thursday: Hot with scattered storms possible and a level 1 (out of 5) risk for severe storms. High of 90.
- Friday: Mostly clear and milder. Highs in the upper 80s.
- Saturday: Mostly sunny skies. High 86.
Summer heat, scattered storms in store this week
This week will certainly feel like summer – with humid afternoons and highs near 90 degrees.
By Friday, we'll be back to clear skies, but the heat will remain. The humidity will only drop slightly, but the weekend is still looking good.
"This push of dry air will be nice but not as strong as the one we experienced last week," said WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze.
Good news for the next week and the US Open
Next week, expect drier air with potentially cooler temperatures arriving later in the week and lasting through the weekend. This means less humidity overall, making for a more comfortable experience during the tournament.
May closes out warmest spring on record
We are coming out of the warmest meteorological spring on record. The average temperature at Raleigh-Durham International Airport for the months of March, April and May – the average of highs and lows around the clock – was 75.8 degrees. The previous record was set in 2012, when the spring temperature averaged 75.2 degrees.
7-day forecast for central NC
- Thursday: Clouds and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High of 90.
- Friday: Fewer clouds. Highs in the mid 80s.
- Saturday: Mostly clear. Highs in the low 80s.
- Sunday: Cloudy and hot. Highs in the upper 80s.
- Monday: A little more humid. Highs in the mid 80s.
- Tuesday: Partly cloudy and hot with a few showers and storms possible. High of 90.
- Wednesday: Partly cloudy early followed by increasing clouds with showers developing later in the day. High around 85.
Prepare for a busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will see 17 to 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin, according to the NOAA forecast. The agency has never predicted a higher number of storms for a season.
The number of named storms is significantly higher than the long-term average and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State.
In 2024, NOAA researchers predict:
- 17 to 25 named storms
- 8 to 13 hurricanes
- 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The NOAA forecast is in line with earlier forecasts issued by North Carolina State and Colorado State universities.
A combination of a La Niña pattern and record warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean set up the conditions for storms to form, organize and strengthen.
