Editor’s note: This story has been updated after Kurt Busch withdrew from NASCAR playoff contention. Previously, there was one playoff spot up for grabs, but now there are two.
One more race, and the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoff field will be official with the premier series’ top-16 drivers advancing to the 10-race postseason for a shot at the championship in November.
Through the first 25 races of the regular season, there have been 15 different race winners, meaning 15 drivers made themselves playoff eligible. But with so many different drivers in Victory Lane this season, the idea of “win and you’re in” has been much less of a guarantee — though it’s true now ahead of the regular-season finale.
Those on the playoff bubble, particularly winless drivers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., have needed repeat winners to keep themselves in playoff contention. Kyle Larson winning his second race of the season last weekend at Watkins Glen International certainly helped.
But now, headed into the last regular-season race — the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, NBC) — Blaney and Truex have one last chance to lock themselves in the playoffs. The problem for them, however, is that without a win, one of them might not make it.
A brief explanation of how this works
While it looked like a very serious possibility throughout the summer, it’s now impossible to have more than 16 different regular-season winners ahead of the playoffs. It’s simple math with 15 winners already and just one regular-season race remaining. So at least now, we can ignore hypothetical scenarios for more than 16 winners.
But if the final playoff spot comes down to points it’s all about regular-season points, not playoff points earned throughout the season. (And to make the playoffs, drivers must be in the top 30 in points no matter what.)
However, Kurt Busch, a 2022 race winner, withdrew from playoff contention Thursday. The 2004 Cup champion suffered a head injury in a crash at Pocono Raceway in July and has not yet been medically cleared to race. So by him pulling out of the playoffs, there are now 14 playoff drivers headed into the final regular-season race and two open spots in the postseason.
Where Blaney and Truex currently sit in the regular-season standings
(Sam Greene, The Enquirer)
Entering the weekend, Blaney has a 25-point advantage over Truex, 779 to 754, ranking them third and sixth, respectively, in the regular-season standings. But shift to see how they stack up against the projected playoff field, and it’s a different story with Blaney being the last driver in the postseason and Truex just missing the cut.
Of course, their point totals will change after the Daytona checkered flag, but with an additional playoff spot available without Busch in the mix, one of these drivers could win and the other could sneak in on points.
They’re the only two drivers at this point who can advance to the playoffs on points.
What if there's a new winner in 2022 at Daytona?
'@DAYTONA's oval has produced a first-time winner in the @NASCAR Cup Series in each of the past five seasons.@ToddGilliland_, @HBurtonRacing and @tydillon are looking for a last-chance win to punch their ticket into the playoffs this weekend. pic.twitter.com/IOWmGcmZUR
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 24, 2022
This could be a disaster scenario for Blaney or Truex if one of them doesn’t end up winning Saturday night. A new 2022 winner at Daytona who’s not one of them means there will be 15 playoff drivers for 16 spots — again, assuming the new winner is also among the top-30 drivers in the regular-season standings.
Blaney and Truex would then face off in points to determine who takes the last playoff spot, so basically, if there’s a new winner who isn’t them, whoever has the most regular-season points is in.
But if Blaney or Truex end up in Victory Lane at Daytona — a feat only Blaney has previously accomplished in the Cup Series — the winner would, obviously, advance to the playoffs and the other in the pair would be in as well.
What if there's a repeat winner in 2022 at Daytona?
If one of the previous 14 race winners this season win at Daytona — Busch is not racing this weekend or in the beginning of the postseason — then both Blaney and Truex will make the playoffs.
So basically, if you’re rooting for both of these drivers to make it to the playoffs, if one of them can’t win, you’re rooting for one of these previous winners to win again:
- Chase Elliott, 4 wins
- Kyle Larson, 2 wins
- Ross Chastain, 2 wins
- Joey Logano, 2 wins
- William Byron, 2 wins
- Kevin Harvick, 2 wins
- Denny Hamlin, 2 wins
- Tyler Reddick, 2 wins
- Christopher Bell, 1 win
- Chase Briscoe, 1 win
- Kyle Busch, 1 win
- Daniel Suárez, 1 win
- Austin Cindric, 1 win
- Alex Bowman, 1 win
What happens if there's not a new winner, and Blaney and Truex end up tied in points?
Either way, if there’s a repeat winner, both Blaney and Truex make the playoffs.
However, if there was a need for a tiebreaker, the playoff spot would go to the driver with the best race finish during the regular season.
