Lagging in polls, Ron DeSantis doubles down on Iowa to catch Trump. Will it work?

DYERSVILLE, Iowa — Less than a day after the first Republican primary debate in Wisconsin, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held the most “Iowa” of all Iowa presidential campaign stops.

The former college baseball player took the field at Dyersville’s iconic Field of Dreams, tossing balls to his kids and chatting informally with Iowans.

His hulking “Never Back Down” bus idled in the parking lot next to an ice cream truck. As the sun set and the sweltering Iowa heat broke, DeSantis and his family — trailed by a small mob of photographers — walked along the tall cornstalks in the outfield.

DeSantis has been a frequent visitor to the Hawkeye State this summer. A bus tour, organized by his PAC, has ferried DeSantis and his family through 10-hour days, including visits to veterans’ organizations, the Iowa State Fair and several Pizza Ranches (must-stops on any Republican presidential campaign).

“Iowans appreciate when you show up, and they expect you to show up. They expect you to earn it,” DeSantis told reporters after a visit to the basement of an Algona VFW. “So that's what we're going to do.”

But the most recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows DeSantis lagging 23 points behind frontrunner Donald Trump in Iowa. While DeSantis shook hands across the state, the former president was been embroiled in several criminal indictments — charges which seem to only make Trump more popular among likely Republican caucusgoers.

Asked about his polling gap, DeSantis doubled down on his commitment to Iowa. He plans to visit all 99 counties, and he’s already crossed 53 off the list. He said it is “the only way” to win the Iowa Caucuses.

“We've had great turnout for these events — far, far beyond what we thought would be. We’re in some of these rural counties that only a few hundred people caucused in in 2016, and we're getting 100 people at our event,” DeSantis told reporters. “I think that we're going to be making a lot of progress.”

Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump have nearly the same Iowa Poll ‘footprint,’ but Trump voters are more locked in

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, asked likely Republican caucusgoers about their first and second choices for the presidential nomination, as well as any other candidates that they are actively considering.

Trump was far and away the most popular first choice among Iowa Republicans. Among likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support the former president. Just 19% of caucusgoers said DeSantis would be their first choice.

However, pollster J. Ann Selzer said the race may be “closer than it may first seem.”

Sixty-three percent of poll respondents said Trump was their first or second choice, or that they were actively considering him. That “footprint” is only slightly larger than the 61% who say the same for DeSantis.

DeSantis’ challenge over the next five months will be converting Iowans’ consideration into locked-in support at the Jan. 15 caucuses.

Political strategist David Kochel, a veteran of several Republican presidential campaigns in Iowa, said the DeSantis campaign is betting that a traditional approach in the state — lots of small-town stops and a 99-county tour — will “hold up against someone like Donald Trump.”

“I think the more time and effort they spend in Iowa, the more that strategy should be validated because I do think it's what a lot of Republicans in Iowa expect,” Kochel said.

Steve McCauley, a retired educator and Algona resident, said watching DeSantis speak at the Algona VFW solidified his support for the Florida governor. He was impressed by DeSantis’ quick-thinking responses to audience questions.

“Right now, I’m saying 'yes' to Ron DeSantis,” McCauley said. “I’ve had that in the back of my mind, as we move forward. I’m more excited after today because of his vision, his articulation and his energy.”

DeSantis has been haunted by awkward moments gone viral, like his hesitant smile on the debate stage. Josiah Metz, a 23-year-old Rock Rapids resident, said he doesn’t care that DeSantis can come off as awkward at times.

“But I think if he wants to be more competitive, he ought to work on it,” Metz said.

In his visit to a Rock Rapids bank, DeSantis seemed to be working hard to connect: He addressed voters by name during an audience Q&A, and when he took a picture with two high school seniors wearing Central Lyon football jerseys ahead of the first game of the fall season, he asked about their team's record.

“Now that high school football season is back, I’d love to go to a high school football game,” he told reporters after the event. “You guys may see me at one of those games later today.”

However, the Iowa Poll reveals another potential hurdle for DeSantis: Two-thirds of Trump supporters in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, 66%, say their minds are made up on supporting the former president, while 34% say they could be persuaded to support someone else.

Among those who said DeSantis was their first choice, 31% said their mind was made up, while 69% could be persuaded to support someone else.

Tierra Hanson and Kim Swanson heard DeSantis speak at a Pizza Ranch in Garner. Hanson said she wanted to see DeSantis in person because she had heard “a lot of crap-talking” about his campaign.

“It was phenomenal,” said Hanson, a 36-year-old social worker and Garner resident. “There was a couple times where I’m like smacking her on the shoulder, like getting goosebumps.”

Yet although they left with DeSantis yard signs in hand, both Hanson and Swanson were still planning to caucus for Trump in 2024.

“I’ve seen what (Trump) has done,” said Swanson, a 36-year-old transportation operations supervisor who wore a Trump-DeSantis ’24 shirt. “From DeSantis, I’ve only heard what he can and wants to do.”

Do Iowans need to see their caucus candidates in person?

For decades, the Iowa caucus playbook has hinged on retail politics. Presidential candidates spend months visiting small-town restaurants and county fairs, courting choosy caucusgoers and answering their questions.

But not every Iowan needs to shake someone’s hand before they caucus for them.

Jessica Langlois, a 32-year-old nurse living in Dubuque, brought her five kids to the Field of Dreams for DeSantis’ visit. But the family was more interested in playing pick-up baseball than they were in the presidential politics.

Langlois said she hasn’t decided who to caucus for, and seeing a candidate in person was “probably not that important to us.”

Meanwhile, 79-year-old Jackie Van Ahn was already committed to caucus for DeSantis, even before she saw him speak at a tiki bar in Panora. She brought a card wishing him luck on the campaign trail.

“I don’t think we expect to see the candidates,” she said. “It just so happened that I was free, I was here, and I’m very interested in him.”

Trump has also turned the Iowa expectations on their head. The former president has made only a few trips to Iowa this year.

Most recently, he swept through the Iowa State Fair, skipping a visit with Gov. Kim Reynolds or the Des Moines Register Political Soapbox. Instead, he did a lap of the Grand Concourse as thousands of people swarmed around him, then quickly left the state.

Trump supporters Bob and Ann Border, a married couple from Victor, were volunteering for the former president’s campaign at the fair that day, handing out koozies and asking people to pledge their support. They saw Trump in the distance, Ann said, as he visited the 27-degree beer vendor.

“Everywhere he goes, big crowd,” she said.

Matt Dailer, a political consultant who worked on U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s 2022 campaign, said Trump doesn’t need to campaign in Iowa the same way that his rivals do — he already has “massive support across the state.”

“When President Trump shows up in Iowa, he probably gets people from at least half of the 99 counties at the rally,” Dailer said. “That's just basically a huge town hall that he's able to connect.”

Kochel said Trump was running as a “quasi-incumbent,” arguing that “every single person knows how they feel” about the former president. But he sees an opportunity for DeSantis, noting that 52% of likely Republican caucusgoers are open to supporting someone other than their first-choice pick.

“If I was the DeSantis team, I would keep pushing here,” Kochel said.

Register reporters Brianne Pfannenstiel and Michaela Ramm and Argus Leader reporter Annie Todd contributed to this story.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her atkakin@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.