Emmys: Updated Predictions as ‘Baby Reindeer’ Jumps the Charts; First Look at Directing and Writing Categories
Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2024 Emmy Predictions: All Categories
Weekly Commentary (Updated April 25, 2024): Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” has made a dramatic entry into the Emmy race, setting itself up as a potential disruptor in various categories, including the acting races for outstanding limited or anthology series. This seven-episode British thriller is a creative fusion that blends the psychological depth of “You” from Netflix and the intense narrative style of HBO’s “I May Destroy You.” The combination could establish “Baby Reindeer” as a significant contender, elevating Netflix’s position in the highly competitive miniseries category.
Meanwhile, Showtime’s “The Curse” is generating its own buzz with strategic episode submissions that highlight its unique blend of comedy and drama. The show, starring Nathan Fielder and Emma Stone, intertwines humor with dark themes, making it a standout in the dark dramedy genre.
This week also marks the release of the first set of projections for the directing and writing categories across drama, comedy, and limited TV/movie. Watch out for potential frontrunners and dark horses to emerge (or fall) in the coming weeks, further shaping the awards season narrative.
Upcoming For Your Consideration (FYC) events: HBO Doc Panel: Portraits” (April 25), The Network’s “The Green Veil,” Apple’s “The New Look” and CBS’ “Survivor” (April 27) and Apple’s “Sugar” (April 28).
Top 4 nomination leaders for series: “The Bear” (17), “The Morning Show” (13), “The Crown” (11), “The Gilded Age” (9)
Note: Not all category and genre placements are yet to be confirmed.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
*** = Predicted Winner
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Drama Series
Image Credit: Marvel Studios “The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“Loki” (Disney+)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix) -
Comedy Series
Image Credit: HBO / Max “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) -
Limited Series
Image Credit: FX “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
“Fargo” (FX)
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max) -
Television Movie
Image Credit: Prime Video “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
“Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
“Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
“Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) ***
“Scoop” (Netflix) -
Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Prime Video Nathan Fielder
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Tom Hiddleston
“Loki” (Disney+)
Gary Oldman ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Dominic West
“The Crown” (Netflix) -
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Hulu Larry David
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Theo James
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX) -
Lead Actor (Limited)
Image Credit: Courtesy of FX Matt Bomer
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Richard Gadd
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm ***
“Fargo” (FX)
Cosmo Jarvis
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Hiroyuki Sanada
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Andrew Scott
“Ripley” (Netflix) -
Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Jeff Neumann/A24/Paramount+ with SHOWTIME Jennifer Aniston
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Maya Erskine
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Imelda Staunton ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Emma Stone
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) -
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Maya Rudolph
“Loot” (Apple TV+)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (Max)
Kristen Wiig
“Palm Royale” (Apple TV+) -
Lead Actress (Limited)
Image Credit: FX Jodie Foster
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Brie Larson
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Anna Sawai ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Juno Temple
“Fargo” (FX)
Naomi Watts
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Kate Winslet
“The Regime” (Max) -
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Alison Cohen Rosa/HBO Khalid Abdalla
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Billy Crudup ***
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Salim Daw
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Mark Duplass
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Lane
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Benny Safdie
“The Curse” (Showtime) -
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO / Max Lionel Boyce
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (Max)
Richard Lewis
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Oliver Platt
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul Rudd
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC) -
Supporting Actor (Limited)
Image Credit: Netflix Tadanobu Asano
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan Bailey ***
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr.
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Christopher Eccleston
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Johnny Flynn
“Ripley” (Netflix)
John Hawkes
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Lewis Pullman
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) -
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Des Willie/Netflix Christine Baranski
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Nicole Beharie
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Greta Lee
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Audra McDonald
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Julianna Margulies
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Cynthia Nixon
“The Gilded Age” (Max) -
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO / Max Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (Max)
Abby Elliott
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meryl Streep ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Lisa Ann Walter
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC) -
Supporting Actress (Limited)
Image Credit: Netflix Diane Lane
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Lily Gladstone
“Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
Jessica Gunning ***
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jennifer Jason Leigh
“Fargo” (FX)
Aja Naomi King
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Fumi Nikaidō
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Kali Reis
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max) -
Guest Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Prime Video Will Arnett
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Michael Braugher
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Emerson ***
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Rob Morgan
“Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
John Turturro
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Guest Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: NBC Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
Mel Brooks
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Ryan Gosling ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
John Mulaney
“The Bear” (FX)
Bob Odenkirk
“The Bear” (FX)
Jerry Seinfeld
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Guest Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Netflix -
Guest Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Chuck Hodes Jamie Lee Curtis ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Olivia Colman
“The Bear” (FX)
Ayo Edebiri
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Emma Stone
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Kristen Wiig
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: ED MILLER/NETFLIX “The Crown” (Netflix) ***
Stephen Daldry, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Nathan Fielder, “Green Queen”
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Jonathan Nolan, “The End”
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Engler, “You Don’t Even Like Opera”
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Mimi Leder, “The Overview Effect”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Hiro Murai, “First Date”
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Derek Tsang, “Countdown”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Christopher Rafael/Netflix “The Bear” (FX)
Joanna Calo, “Sundae”
“The Bear” (FX) ***
Christopher Storer, “Forks”
“The Bear” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, “Honeydew”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Jeff Schaffer, “No Lessons Learned”
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Guy Ritchie, “Refined Aggression”
“Hacks” (Max)
Lucia Aniello, “Just For Laughs”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Directing (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Robert Viglasky “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Weronika Tofilska, “Episode 1”
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Adina Smith, “Her and Him”
“Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Cary Joji Fukunaga, “Part One”
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian, series
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream”
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan van Tulleken, “Chapter One: Anjin”
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Issa López, seriesEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Writing (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime Video “The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” by Peter Morgan
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Land of Enchantment” by Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The End” by Geneva Robertson-Dworet & Graham Wagner
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“In Terms of Winning and Losing” by Julian Fellowes
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“First Date” by Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
“Countdown” by David Benioff, D. B. Weiss, Alexander WooEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Writing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Shane Brown/FX “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Career Day” by Quinta Brunson
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Beef” by Christopher Storer
“The Bear” (FX)
“Forks” by Alex Russell
“Hacks” (Max)
“Just For Laughs” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky
“Reservation Dogs” (FX)
“Dig” by Chad Charlie and Sterlin Harjo
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
“Urgent Care” by Sam Johnson, Chris MarcilEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Writing (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Ben Mark Holzberg/SHOWTIME “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) ***
Richard Gadd, series
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
“You’re Wonderful” by Ron Nyswaner
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter One: Anjin” by Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream” by Maegan Houang, Emily Yoshida
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
“Part 6” by Issa LópezEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Talk Series
Image Credit: Matt Wilson/Comedy Central’s The Daily Show “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Scripted Variety Series
Image Credit: NBC “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA” (Netflix)
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Reality or Competition Program
Image Credit: CBS “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
“The Voice” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Game Show
Image Credit: Dropout “Family Feud” (Syndication)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndication)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Structured Reality
Image Credit: COURTESY OF NETFLIX “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
“Shark Tank” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Unstructured Reality
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV) ***
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Documentary (Series)
“American Nightmare” (Netflix)
“Beckham” (Netflix)
“The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst” (Max)
“Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of TV” (ID) ***
“Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Documentary (Special)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Film Festival “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (Max)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix) ***
“STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Exceptional Merit
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute “Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” (Max)
“The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple TV+)
“Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix) -
Animated Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Marvel Animation “Archer” (FX)
“Blue Eye Samurai” (Netflix)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“X-Men ’97” (Disney+) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Variety Special (Live)
Image Credit: Disney “The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher” (CBS)
“Billy Joel: The 100th Live at Madison Square Garden” (CBS)
“The Oscars” (ABC) ***
“The 66th Annual Grammy Awards” (CBS)
“The 76th Tony Awards” (CBS) -
Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Image Credit: MATHIEU BITTON/NETFLIX “Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer” (Netflix) ***
“Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic” (CBS)
“Ramy Youssef: More Feelings” (Max)
“Ricky Gervais: Armageddon” (Netflix)
“Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix) -
More Information (Primetime Emmy Awards)
Image Credit: Max Doyle for Variety 2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Drama Comedy Limited/Movie Drama Series Comedy Series Limited or Anthology Series Lead Actor (Drama) Lead Actor (Comedy) Lead Actor (Limited, Movie) Lead Actress (Drama) Lead Actress (Comedy) Lead Actress (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actor (Drama) Supporting Actor (Comedy) Supporting Actor (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actress (Drama) Supporting Actress (Comedy) Supporting Actress (Limited, Movie) Directing (Drama) Directing (Comedy) Directing (Limited, Movie) Writing (Drama) Writing (Comedy) Writing (Limited, Movie) Guest Actor (Drama) Guest Actor (Comedy) Television Movie Guest Actress (Drama) Guest Actress (Comedy) Casting (Limited, Movie) Casting (Drama) Casting (Comedy) Other Awards Predictions
Talk Series Reality Competition Program Animated Program Scripted Variety Game Show Character Voice-Over Performance Variety Special (Live) Host for a Reality or Competition Program Narrator Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) Structured Reality Documentary (Series) Directing (Series, Special) Unstructured Reality Documentary (Special) Writing (Series, Special) Directing (Reality Program) Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) Main Title Design Writing (Nonfiction) Short Form Series Short Form (Actor/Actress) Exceptional Merit About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.