Men's Bracketology: 2025 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 5/31/2024 at 10 a.m. ET

There is no longer an off-season in college basketball. With more than 1,800 Division I players changing teams, the majority of programs are dependent on the transfer portal to stock and re-stock their rosters each spring. The resulting tumult creates wide swings in projected performance for the following year, and we're here to track it for you with monthly bracket updates -- along with this special post-NBA withdrawal edition -- until opening night on November 4.

Bracket Watch

Alabama is the talk of the town after crushing both the transfer portal and then, later, waiting out the NBA early entry deadline. Coming off a Final Four, the momentum for the Crimson Tide to be a projected No. 1 seed -- perhaps even No. 1 overall -- is hard to ignore. Our job, though, is to remain objective, apply historical trends and, when necessary, pump the brakes a bit. Alabama certainly has talent, but our off-season projections already included both Mark Sears and Jarin Stevenson on the roster. And we know that overachieving Final Four teams -- North Carolina (2022), Florida Atlantic (2023) and perhaps the Tide (2024) -- tend to regress the following year. Throw in equal or greater talent on all of our existing 1-seeds and we'll slot Alabama at No. 5 overall, our top No. 2 seed. It's a great spot heading into a season which promises multiple elite teams with marquee players across the board. By next March, if not just yet, the Crimson Tide could be the best of the bunch.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Milwaukee

Denver

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Raleigh

Providence

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Wichita

Cleveland

Seattle

Lexington

EAST (NEWARK)

Providence

Cleveland

Raleigh

Milwaukee

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Milwaukee

Denver

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Raleigh

Providence

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Wichita

Cleveland

Seattle

Lexington

EAST (NEWARK)

Providence

Cleveland

Raleigh

Milwaukee

Conference Breakdown

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