Can a team staring down a dismal 7-19 record at the very start of the regular season possibly turn things around and snag a playoff spot? Two MLB insiders, Steven Brault and Trevor Plouffe of Baseball Today by JM Baseball, believe that the answer for the Houston Astros is a resounding yes. Here’s why they—and maybe even you—should keep faith in the orange and blue.

“I have a hard time believing this team is gonna stay down,” says Brault, acknowledging the Astros’ struggles but highlighting their potent offense. He points to Yordan Alvarez and the ever-dangerous José Altuve as bright spots and expects a struggling Alex Bregman to find his groove. But it’s pitching, not hitting, that has been the Stros’ Achilles heel so far.

Enter the ever-optimistic Brault: “Justin Verlander coming back, that’s helped,” he says, then playfully adds, “Verlander is going to be like, ‘I’m doing well. What the heck are you guys doing? And you know, I’m 42 and just got another TJ, and I’m doing this.’… I think that might help.” Brault seems to suggest JV’s return might light a fire under some younger pitchers. History, however, isn’t really on the Houston Astros’ side.

Plouffe himself points out that only two teams in MLB history started this poorly and finished above .500, and neither made the playoffs. So, are Brault and Plouffe just clinging to the past Stars’ glories, as Plouffe himself admits, “we’re all kind of scared of speaking against the Astros”?

Maybe. But both analysts point to a key factor: a weak AL West division. “Nobody’s running away with it,” jokes Brault, highlighting the opportunity for a turnaround. Injuries have also plagued the Astros’ pitching staff, but with Framber Valdez and others set to return, the outlook brightens.

The return of Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, and José Urquidy to the starting rotation, along with a potential bullpen improvement, could be the difference between an also-ran and a postseason contender. The upcoming trade deadline presents another X-factor.

Healthy reinforcements and a wide-open division fuel Houston Astros’ playoff dreams

“They’re not just going to give away a season,” says Plouffe, hinting at potential reinforcements. The Astros have a championship window, and they’ll likely fight to keep it open. So, should you pencil the Astros into the playoffs right now? Probably not. But should you completely count them out?

Absolutely not. Think about it this way: replacing struggling pitchers like Hunter Brown and J.P. France with established big-league talent instantly improves the pitching staff’s depth and quality. As Plouffe said, with these reinforcements, “some of these performances regress to the mean in a positive fashion.” In other words, the starting pitching, which has been a significant source of the Stros’ woes, could quickly become a strength.

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If they’re within striking distance by July, they’ll likely be aggressive in adding reinforcements. Imagine a scenario where the Houston Astros not only get their core players back healthy but also add another impact piece or two at the deadline. That’s a proven recipe for a potential second-half surge.

Here’s the kicker: the window of opportunity in the AL West is wide open. There’s no dominant team running away with the division. Even with their struggles, the Astros are only six and a half games out of first place. This is where the “weak division” narrative comes into play. In a balanced division, a healthy Stars team could go on a tear and make a serious run in the playoffs. So, while the road ahead is undeniably challenging, there’s enough cause for optimism in Houston.

A healthy roster, a wide-open division, and the Houston Astros’ winsome attitude, all combine to create a scenario where a late-season playoff push isn’t out of the question. After all, stranger things have definitely happened in baseball history. As both Pouffe and Brault muses, “ALCS seven years… That doesn’t just happen; you know, that’s progressively having a good core, and they still have that core… we both believe in the Stros.”