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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's NHL club has a 7.5% chance of winning the draft lottery Tuesday (4:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN). And general manager Bill Armstrong doesn't hate those odds.
"We've got a good chance at picking at one, because the franchise has been so many times in the lottery and hasn't won it," he said. "Odds are, at some point in time, your numbers got to come up."
Such a quote will give plenty of ammunition to conspiracy theorists if the ping-pong balls do fall Utah's way.
There were plenty of cries that the draw was rigged after Chicago landed generational prospect Connor Bedard. If the NHL's shiny new toy instantly lands a foundational star (Boston University center Macklin Celebrini is a shoo-in to be the top selection), eyebrows, once again, will be raised.
Especially after — to Armstrong's point — years of rotten lottery luck in Arizona.
The Arizona Coyotes never got the No. 1 pick — an all-too-painful fact for fans in the desert who endured years of playoff-less hockey.
In 2007, the Coyotes finished with the second-worst record, but the Chicago Blackhawks jumped from No. 5 to No. 1 and got Patrick Kane with the first overall selection.
In 2015, the Coyotes were, once again, the second-worst team in the NHL, but it was the Edmonton Oilers who moved up from the No. 3 slot to get franchise center Connor McDavid.
In 2016, with Arizona native Auston Matthews as the prize of the draft, the Coyotes fell from No. 3 to No. 7(!) on lottery night.
More recently in 2022, the Coyotes fell from No. 2 to No. 3.
Will a new franchise (technically speaking) in a new city change the team's fortune? The team is, at least, hopeful.
How the lottery works
Jazz fans should be familiar with the basic setup, but there are some key differences between the NBA and NHL lotteries: Only the top two picks are determined by lottery, and a team who just missed the playoffs can't jump to the No. 1 spot.
A set of 14 ping-pong balls are placed in a lottery machine, allowing for 1,001 combinations. Each lottery team is assigned a set of random four-number combinations, with the worst teams getting more combinations.
The first draw determines the No. 1 pick; however, a team can now only move up a maximum of 10 spots (due to a rule change in 2022). So if a club in the 12-16 range wins the first draw, they move up 10 spots, and the team lowest in the standings (in this case, the San Jose Sharks) gets the No. 1 selection.
The second pick is determined similarly with teams still only being able to move up a maximum of 10 spots.
The rest of the first-round order (as well as the rest of the draft) is determined by record.
The odds
Utah has the sixth-best odds to win the lottery due to the Coyotes' finish last season. The Utah team has a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 7.7% chance at the No. 2 selection. Here are the full odds (note that it's more likely for the Utah team to fall to No. 7 than stay at No. 6).
How good is Celebrini?
Celebrini was the youngest player in college hockey last season, but he was also the best. He scored 32 goals and 64 points in 38 games as a freshman, and he was the youngest player ever to win the Hobey Baker Award given to the top college player.
The 17-year-old phenom (he'll turn 18 in June) isn't seen as a once-in-a-decade type of prospect like Bedard (2023's top pick) or McDavid (2015's), but he's considered by many to be on the next tier.
He's a two-way center who checks just about every box for a top forward prospect. He's got excellent hands, creative playmaking vision, a terrific shot, and he doesn't cheat on defense.
The one potential knock is he doesn't possess an almost otherworldly attribute that top-five NHL players typically have. That keeps him out of the McDavid/Bedard/Auston Matthews hype level.
Regardless, he's still a straight-to-the-NHL player and a potential franchise changer.
