It’s been a bumpy ride for Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons are playing well at the right time. Wake improved to 36-16 overall and 15-12 with an emphatic sweep of Clemson in Winston-Salem.
Chase Burns delivered arguably his finest performance of his junior season on Friday night, allowing only two hits and one earned run while striking out a season-high 16 in seven innings. He is now 10-1 with a 2.85 ERA and has 156 strikeouts — a single-season school record — in only 82 innings.
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After rallying for an 8-5 win on Saturday, the Deacs completed the sweep with a 13-3 win in eight innings on Sunday. Josh Hartle, a preseason All-American who has struggled for much of the season, was very sharp in the finale. The junior left-hander allowed four hits and three earned runs while striking out nine with only one walk in six innings.
With an RPI of 9, Wake is in great shape to be one of the 16 Regional hosts and can still play its way into a top-eight national seed.
Sixteen. pic.twitter.com/rW1mljW0es
— Wake Forest Baseball (@WakeBaseball) May 10, 2024
Around the horn
The race for the SEC regular-season title is coming down to the final weekend. Kentucky, at 20-7, is one game up on Tennessee and Arkansas after the Wildcats took two of three from Florida in Gainesville.
Next week, Tennessee hosts South Carolina, Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt and Arkansas travels to Texas A&M.
No team is playing better than Georgia. The Bulldogs have swept consecutive series against Vanderbilt (home) and South Carolina (road) by an average score of 12-5. Georgia is 38-12 overall and 16-11 in the SEC and, with an RPI that has climbed to No. 2, is highly likely to be a top-eight seed.
Charlie Condon headlines one of the nation’s top offenses, but senior leadoff hitter Corey Collins is also a huge part of this team’s success. Collins is hitting .367 with 16 home runs and 49 RBIs, and he leads the nation with a .598 on-base percentage — a very good thing when you bat one spot in front of Condon.
da𝐖gs, da𝐖gs, da𝐖gs#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/oIW2pVtkXk
— Georgia Baseball (@BaseballUGA) May 11, 2024
Austin Peay has all but wrapped up two-thirds of the team triple crown and has a decent lead in the third category with one week remaining in the regular season. The Governors lead the nation in batting average at .358 (14 percentage points higher than Wofford). They also lead in RBIs by a wide margin, with 536 (72 more than Wofford).
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The Govs’ home run lead is a bit more precarious. They have 140, seven more than Georgia and nine more than Tennessee. The two SEC schools, however, are guaranteed a spot in the postseason — and at least two more games but likely several more — while Austin Peay will need to win the ASUN Tournament to make a Regional.
So which teams are on the other end of the spectrum in the triple crown categories?
- Pacific ranks last nationally in batting average at .219.
- CSU Bakersfield, somehow, has hit only 10 home runs.
- Alcorn State is last in RBIs with 149.
Some very familiar names are in danger of missing the postseason. Florida, Louisville, LSU, Stanford, TCU, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt have combined for 29 College World Series appearances and four national titles since 2014, and all seven teams are under .500 in their respective leagues with one weekend remaining. Let’s take a look at these teams in order of most likely to miss the postseason.
• Stanford (20-28 overall, 11-16 Pac-12, 148 RPI): The Cardinal have no shot at an at-large invite.
• Texas Tech (30-22 overall, 12-17 Big 12, 54 RPI): The Red Raiders, losers of five straight, are done with Big 12 play and wrap up their regular season this weekend with three games in Tempe, Ariz. — two against Arizona State and one against UNLV. It’s probably Big 12 Tournament title or bust for Tech.
• Louisville (29-22 overall, 13-14 ACC, 63 RPI) — The Cardinals almost assuredly will need a deep run in the ACC Tournament that would include several wins over highly ranked teams. Next week’s finale vs. Notre Dame could help in the win column but likely won’t do much for the RPI.
• Florida (26-25 overall, 11-16 SEC, 28 RPI): The Gators have two issues. First, they must finish above .500 overall to even be in the conversation for an at-large bid. Second is the SEC record. Can they get it in with a 12-18 record and a strong RPI? Possibly — though the overall record would come into play — but not likely. Also, there’s the difficulty of playing at red-hot Georgia next weekend.
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• LSU (33-20 overall, 10-17 SEC, 34 RPI): The Tigers’ late-season run hit a speed bump in Tuscaloosa over the weekend. They can play their way back into the picture with a sweep of Ole Miss next weekend in Oxford.
• TCU (30-17 overall, 13-14 Big 12, 38 RPI): The Horned Frogs are back on the bubble after winning five of their last six Big 12 games. They are probably in good shape if they take two of three from West Virginia in Fort Worth next weekend.
• Vanderbilt (34-18, 12-15 SEC, 27 RPI): The Commodores picked up a potential season-saving win on Sunday, shutting out Tennessee 3-0 in Nashville. Conventional wisdom suggests Vanderbilt will be in decent shape with at least one win at Kentucky this weekend.
The most surprising result of the weekend? Has to be East Carolina getting swept at Tulane. The Pirates, 37-13 overall and 16-8 in the American Athletic Conference, are still in a good position to host a Regional, but their hopes of being a top-eight seed took a big hit. The RPI is down to No. 12 and figures to drop next weekend with three games against Rice (172 RPI). ECU hosts Campbell (84 RPI) in its final midweek game of the season.
Charleston won a critical series at home vs. Northeastern over the weekend, bouncing back from a 14-11 loss in 12 innings on Friday to record wins of 18-5 on Saturday and 6-3 on Sunday.
UNCW, at 19-5, holds a half-game lead over Charleston in the CAA. Northeastern is four games back at 15-9. All three teams should be in the at-large discussion on Selection Monday.
NC State’s overall record of 29-19 doesn’t jump out at you, and the Pack’s No. 20 RPI is nothing special. But consider some of the highlights on their postseason resume:
- Series win vs. Duke (23 RPI)
- Series win at Clemson (7 RPI)
- Series win vs. North Carolina (5 RPI)
- Series split at Florida State (8 RPI)
- Series win at Virginia (13 RPI)
The Pac-12 regular-season title will be on the line next weekend when Oregon State travels to Arizona. The Wildcats, at 18-8, currently hold a one-game lead over the Beavers, 17-9.
Both teams will be in a Regional regardless of the outcome this weekend and in the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon is the only other team in the league with a realistic path to an at-large invite. The Ducks are 34-16 overall and 16-11 in the Pac-12 with an RPI of 45. They close with a three-game series at home with Washington State.
Five teams are within two games of the lead in the Big Ten with one weekend remaining. Illinois (15-6) is one game up on Nebraska (14-7) and two up on Purdue (13-8), Indiana (13-8) and Michigan (13-8). Iowa is 2.5 games out at 14-10 but is done with its Big Ten schedule.
Florida State’s Jamie Arnold had perhaps the best performance of the 2024 season by a pitcher who took the loss. The sophomore left-hander allowed three hits and one earned run while striking out 17 with no walks in seven innings in the Seminoles’ 1-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Friday. His counterpart, Pitt’s Ryan Andrade, also allowed only three hits in seven innings en route to his second victory of the season.
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And finally
• Oklahoma is the Big 12 regular-season champion for the first time in program history — in the program’s final season in the league. The Sooners swept Baylor over the weekend to improve their league record to 21-6. Oklahoma State is 3.5 games back with only three games remaining.
• Cincinnati has clinched a winning record in its first season in the Big 12. The Bearcats, 16-11 in league play with an RPI of 53, host Oklahoma next weekend with an opportunity to improve their at-large resume. They have played in a Regional only once since 1974 — as a No. 4 seed in the Corvallis Regional in 2019.
• There are five Sun Belt teams with top-50 RPIs heading into the final week of the regular season: Southern Miss (32), Coastal Carolina (37), Louisiana (39), James Madison (47) and Troy (49).
• Oral Roberts, which made a Cinderella run to the College World Series last season, appears headed to an under-.500 finish in 2024. The Golden Eagles are 23-27-1 and 12-13-1 in the Summit League.
• Tennessee was shut out for the first time this season on Sunday in a 3-0 loss at Vanderbilt. It was also the first time the Vols did not have an extra-base hit.
• Few teams helped their postseason chances more this weekend than Ole Miss. The Rebels took two of three from Texas A&M, a top-five RPI team, to improve to 27-24 overall and 11-16 in the SEC. The Rebels’ RPI is up to No. 22, and they finish the season with a three-game set at LSU.
• Travis Bazzana is the new all-time hits leader at Oregon State with 239. The junior second baseman broke the previous mark set by Darwin Barney.
• The Big West is looking like a two-bid league. With six conference games remaining — the Big West doesn’t have a tournament — UCSB (20-4, 19 RPI) is two games up on UC Irvine (18-6, 24 RPI).
(Photo of Chase Burns courtesy of Wake Forest Athletics)
