The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals first leg results mid-week did live up to expectation.
As things stand now, none of the eight teams is sure of the semis ticket until the second legs are concluded next week Tuesday and Wednesday.
For example, who will qualify between Arsenal and Bayern with their first leg game ending 2-2 or between Real Madrid and Manchester City when their first leg match ended 3-3. Though Barcelona beat PSG 3-2 in Paris, that’s is not a guarantee that they will reach the semis. Atletico Madrid 2-1 home win over Borussia Dortmund does not mean that the Germans cannot overturn the result on Tuesday.
However, between the UEFA Champions League and the Premier League, there seems to be an identical feature running through the leagues, uncertainty.
With seven games to the end of the league and with three teams-Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City-in a three-horse race, what is certain in the Premier League is that topsy turvy nature that has become a regular feature for some weeks now.
Before last weekend games kicked off, Liverpool were on the driving seat, only for them to drop their two points advantage at the Old Trafford by playing a 2-2 game with Manchester United against all expectations, when they needed a win.
This weekend, Arsenal are on the driving seat having taken the lead with their superior goals advantage over Liverpool, despite that the two clubs have each garnered 71 points. Placed third with a point less are Manchester City ready to snatch the advantage from Arsenal should they faulter against Aston Villa at home on Sunday. Certainly, Manchester City are expected to climb to the top after demolishing Luton on Saturday with Liverpool expected to retake the top spot after their game at home to Crystal Palace. And in the same vein, Arsenal are expected to retake the spot after they must have beaten Villa at the Emirates in the last game on Sunday. These are mere conjectures because football is no mathematics where two plus two equals four. If it were so, Liverpool would not have surrendered their advantage cheaply.
But with Arsenal back in control of the Premier League title race, have they learnt anything from their last season collapse?
Steve Douglas in an article in yahoosports.com looked at the Gunners run-in games believing they can win the title this season.
The Gunners are there again, leading the league with seven games left — just like last season. And once again, City are on Arsenal’s shoulder, waiting to pounce.
“Will this year be different? He asked.
While answering, he believes save for an unlikely huge swing in goal difference, Arsenal can capture the league for the first time since 2004 by winning its last seven games.
Arsenal are tied for points with Liverpool but has a superior goal difference of nine over Liverpool. City is a point back in third. All three clubs have seven matches remaining, with each of their run-ins sprinkled with what appears to be home bankers and tough road trips.
Arsenal is in the driving seat, though, and is mounting an increasingly convincing case.
Unlike last season, when Arteta’s players stumbled — some say froze — late in the campaign with just two wins in their last nine games as injuries took their toll, they look to be growing in strength this time.
Here’s a deeper look at the facts and figures around Arsenal’s latest title challenge and what might be the defining features of the next six weeks:
Statistics
The numbers suggest Arsenal is ready to take this final step. Unbeaten in the league in 11 matches in 2024, the team has scored 38 goals and conceded just four in that spell — better than anyone else in both aspects. In the season as a whole, Arsenal have a league-high 75 goals and let in a league-low 24. Arsenal has the most reliable defence in the league, as shown by shutting out City home and away this season.
Squad Strength
Declan Rice is the obvious upgrade in Arsenal’s squad, with the England midfielder’s $138 million fee proving to be value for money. Much of Arsenal’s defensive strength is down to the protection the back line gets from Rice in front of it and also from Jorginho, who has established himself as a regular in the second half of the season. Kai Havertz was a more contentious offseason signing but is confounding his critics, having scored in five in Arsenal’s last seven league games. Most notable were the late winners home and away against Brentford. Arsenal has also coped fine without its other big summer signing, Jurrien Tumber, who has missed pretty much the whole season because of injury. Jakob Kiwior, an unheralded January 2023 recruit, has filled in well at left back in recent months.
Lessons Learned
Mikel Arteta was accused by many pundits of being too emotional on the sidelines last season and letting that seep into his team in those pressure-filled last few months. He’s still active on the touchline, for sure, but he is proving to be a calmer figure as the intensity builds. The same can be said of his team. Arteta appears to have followed the playbook of City manager Pep Guardiola in pacing the campaign much more effectively. Arsenal controls games better, making them less frenetic. Arteta has not been afraid to rest players, when last season he might have overplayed the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli and saw their late-season displays tail off. By playing Kiwior, Arteta has also started to deploy a back four entirely composed of centre backs — like Guardiola did at times last season to great effect.
Europe
The biggest concern for Arsenal might be its continued involvement in the Champions League, with one-leg quarterfinal with Bayern Munich coming up next week. If Arsenal advances, it would play either City or Real Madrid in the semifinals. In that case, the Gunners would not have a free midweek until the last week of the season — and they aren’t used to such a fixture pileup. That would be the ultimate test of Arteta’s credentials and his squad depth. Ahead of the first leg of the quarterfinals on Tuesday that ended 2-2, Bayern coach Thomas Tuchel was full of praise for Arteta and how he has changed the culture at Arsenal after a tough start. “They are the best team in Europe, currently,” Tuchel said on Monday. “They are dominating the toughest league in the world.”
Fixtures
Away from its extremely difficult Champions League schedule, Arsenal might also have the toughest run-in of the three Premier League title challengers. Away games against Manchester United — away to whom Liverpool has just stumbled twice — and north London rival Tottenham stand out, as does this weekend’s match against fifth-placed Aston Villa. Negotiating a trip to Wolverhampton, which beat City at home this season, and then a home match against a mercurial Chelsea team in the space of four days after the second leg against Bayern will also be a test for Arteta.
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