By all accounts, offensive talent will dominate the first round of this year’s NFL Draft.
Current odds at BetMGM have the over/under at 21.5 offensive players and 10.5 defensive players in the first round.
The 2024 draft could mirror the 2021 class, where seven offensive players came off the board before the first defender had his name called.
Unlike in previous drafts, there isn’t a runaway favorite for which defensive player will come off the board first when the draft commences with the first round Thursday night.
The current favorite is Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, but a handful of names could be in contention.
Let’s break down the market for the first defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
2024 NFL Draft: First defensive player picked odds
| Player | Position | School | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Turner | Edge | Alabama | -145 |
| Laiatu Latu | Edge | UCLA | +275 |
| Jared Verse | Edge | Florida State | +425 |
| Byron Murphy II | Defensive Tackle | Texas | +1000 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | Cornerback | Toledo | +1800 |
| Terrion Arnold | Cornerback | Alabama | +2000 |
Falcons hold the keys
Understanding how the top of the draft order is likely to play out is crucial to handicapping this market.
The Bears, Commanders and Patriots are expected to spend the first three picks on quarterbacks, with the fourth or fifth selection potentially going to the Vikings in a trade-up for the fourth quarterback in this class.
After that, wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers and offensive tackle Joe Alt are expected to be off the board quickly Thursday.
The first seven picks are likely to be offensive players, leading to the Falcons’ getting their pick of the defensive crop at No. 8 overall.
With Kirk Cousins signed as the new starting quarterback and Atlanta spending their first-round pick on an offensive skill position player in each of the last three seasons, the Falcons are expected to turn their attention to defense.
The current odds have them priced at -210 to take a defensive lineman or edge defender at DraftKings. The cornerback position comes in second at +190.
Let’s look at the edge crop in this year’s draft, starting with Dallas Turner — the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted.
Why Dallas Turner is the betting favorite
Throughout the pre-draft process, Turner has been considered the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. He’s currently priced at -145 odds at DraftKings, and his most commonly mocked landing spot is the Falcons.
A former five-star recruit, Turner has elite athletic traits, combining explosive get-off with impressive speed. He’s in the 92nd percentile or better for the 40-yard dash, broad jump and vertical jump.
Having just turned 21 in February, Turner is still learning the ropes at the edge-rusher position. His pass-rush tool kit lacks the necessary counters and consistent hand usage to find elite sack production in the NFL. However, you simply can’t teach his closing burst and explosiveness to beat offensive tackles off the line of scrimmage.
With 80th percentile or better wingspan and arm length, Turner has the necessary physical traits to be a high-level NFL edge rusher.
However, this class has a clear top tier of edge rushers, and Turner ranked a distant third behind Laiatu Latu and Jared Verse in PFF’s pass rush grades and win rate.
Will the Falcons bet on Turner’s long-term trajectory? Or will they prefer someone more polished at No. 8 overall?
Rising odds for Laiatu Latu
Latu is second in odds to be the first defensive player drafted, currently sitting at +275 at DraftKings. After the UCLA edge rusher climbed as high as +700 at some shops last week, Latu has closed ground on Turner in the market.
On the surface, Latu lacks ideal traits, weighing 259 pounds (37th percentile) and with 32 5/8-inch arms (16th percentile). However, that didn’t seem to affect his production last season.
Latu was PFF’s highest-graded edge rusher in the country in 2023, finishing with 62 pressures and a 26.2% pass-rush win rate on his way to a dominant 13-sack season.
Turning 24 during his rookie season, Latu is much further along in his developmental arc, which shows in his film. His hand usage is precise, his footwork is consistent and his pass-rush bag is deep. Latu’s film is a joy to watch, as he routinely embarrassed opposing offensive tackles on his way to the quarterback.
That said, Latu’s draft stock is difficult to assess due to his medical history. In 2020, he suffered a neck injury in preseason workouts while playing for Washington, and the team’s medical staff told him he would never play again. Latu medically retired following neck-fusion surgery, before making his triumphant return to UCLA in 2022 and dominating his senior season in 2023.
Washington’s defensive coordinator at the time of Latu’s injury was Jimmy Lake, the new Falcons defensive coordinator. Given that connection, if anyone would have a confident assessment of Latu’s medical status, it would be Lake.
Latu makes a ton of sense if the Falcons are looking for a polished pass rusher who can excel immediately for a team looking to win now.
Is Byron Murphy II worth a flier?
In Daniel Jeremiah’s recent media conference call, the NFL Network draft analyst was asked for his favorite potential riser into the top 10 in this year’s draft. The name that immediately came to mind for Jeremiah was Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy.
“It’s a league that has placed an ever-more premium on defensive tackles,” Jeremiah said. “It falls off pretty quick at defensive tackle (after Murphy).”
Murphy was featured on my All-Athlete team for the NFL draft published on Action Network. The Texas product has 11-inch hands (97th percentile), ran a 4.87-second 40-yard dash (91st percentile) at the combine and finished with an elite 8.95 Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
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According to PFF, Murphy’s 19.6% pass-rush win rate led all defensive tackles in the FBS last season, while he owns the site’s highest pass-rush grade among defensive tackles since 2022.
Murphy is an instant-impact defensive tackle who can provide elite pass-rush productivity as a three-technique lineman.
FSU’s Jared Verse is third in my edge rankings behind Latu and Turner. He also has the third-shortest odds of becoming the first defensive player drafted at +425.
Where is the betting value?
The decision between Latu and Turner comes down to the age-old debate of polish and production versus elite athletic traits and upside.
I’d still argue the Falcons are the team that drafts the first defensive player in this class, and I expect it to be one of those two edge defenders.
You can find Latu at +300 to be the first defensive player drafted at BetMGM, and while those odds aren’t nearly as good as what was available a week ago, I don’t mind that number.
Otherwise, I’d recommend waiting to see if Turner creeps back toward even-money ahead of Thursday night.
BEST BET: Laiatu Latu first defensive player drafted (+300, BetMGM) | POTENTIAL BET: Watch if Dallas Turner’s odds approach even-money