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The Washington Capitals aren’t supposed to be here, but against all odds, they are, and Spencer Carbery’s resilient bunch has nothing to apologize for ahead of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

By now, you’re probably aware that the Capitals’ goal differential during the regular season was quite poor. Washington allowed 37 more goals than it scored, which <a href="https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-04-18/league" target=_blank>ranks 27th</a> in a league that awards 16 playoff spots. Historically, teams with better goal differentials win more games and therefore accumulate more points, which determine postseason berths.

As multiple outlets noted after Washington’s playoff-clinching <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/16/capitals-flyers-stanley-cup-playoffs/" target=_blank>2-1 win over the Flyers</a> on Tuesday, which was made possible by American hero and Stanley Cup champion T.J. Oshie’s rare empty-net game-winning goal, the Capitals’ minus-37 goal differential is the worst by a team that qualified for the postseason since 1991, when the Whalers (minus-38) and Canucks (minus-72) both made the field. (Back then, the league had just 21 teams, and all but five made the playoffs.) This year’s Capitals set the mark for the worst goal differential by a playoff team in the salary cap era (since 2005-06), which was previously held by the 2011-12 Panthers (minus-24).

The appropriate response to these facts, which Capitals fans seem to have embraced, is “Isn’t it hilarious that <i>this team</i> is in the playoffs?!” Heck, there’s even a <a href="https://breakingt.com/collections/washington-hockey" target=_blank>“-37 goal differential” T-shirt</a> that pays homage to the Capitals’ bizarro 2023-24 campaign, during which Washington typically <a href="https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2024/03/29/capitals-blowout-losses/" target=_blank>lost in blowout fashion or won by the narrowest of margins</a>.

Most Capitals fans will readily admit this team isn’t particularly good, and on many nights during the regular season, it was downright awful. The front office essentially admitted this was not a playoff-caliber squad in March, when it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/08/capitals-nhl-trade-deadline-evgeny-kuznetsov/" target=_blank>traded Evgeny Kuznetsov</a>, Anthony Mantha and Joel Edmundson. With center Nicklas Backstrom <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/01/nicklas-backstrom-injury-capitals/" target=_blank>having to step away</a>, injuries limiting Oshie to 52 games and Alex Ovechkin getting off to the slowest start of his career, it made sense for Washington to look ahead to next season and develop its prospects. And yet the players who remained — including several youngsters getting their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/19/capitals-stanley-cup-playoffs-pressure/" target=_blank>first taste of an NHL playoff race</a> — refused to quit.

After a six-game losing streak seemed to dash all hopes of an improbable postseason berth, the Capitals won four of five, including a back-to-back to close the regular season. They did it despite scoring more than two goals exactly once in their last 11 games. Goalie Charlie Lindgren, who began the season as Darcy Kuemper’s backup and played his way into the starting job, is a big reason. Since Jan. 27, when Ovechkin broke his scoring slump, Washington’s goal differential in 24 regulation games with Lindgren in net is plus-one.

“Caps making the playoffs is wild,” retired NHL enforcer <a href="https://twitter.com/johnscott_32/status/1780648820428132467" target=_blank>John Scott wrote on X</a>. “They don’t out-skill their opponents. Their special teams aren’t great. It’s always just: ‘Charlie Lindgren played well and they scored opportunistic goals.’ That’s the Caps in a nutshell. They suck, but they find a way to win. It’s amazing.”

It’s strange, this feeling of playing with house money and zero expectations as the Capitals prepare to face the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers. In the Ovechkin era, Washington more often has entered the playoffs among the favorites to win the Cup. In 2010, the Capitals finished the regular season with a franchise-record 121 points and a goal differential that was<a href="https://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20092010&sort=standingsGoalDifferential&type=LEA" target=_blank> 23 goals better</a> than the next-best team, only to become the first No. 1 seed to blow a three-games-to-one first-round series lead to a No. 8 seed. They were eliminated by the Montreal Canadiens and a goalie who shall not be named so as not to spoil the high of the past few days. Could the mustachioed Lindgren, the Capitals’ MVP, play the same spoiler role against New York in his playoff debut?

The Rangers’ goal differential was 90 better than Washington’s this season, but luckily for the Capitals, the scoreboard at Madison Square Garden will read 0-0 when the puck drops on Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. Washington and New York split the regular season series, with each team scoring nine goals across four games.

Sure, Washington could get its doors blown off and challenge the 1993-94 Islanders for the worst goal differential (minus-19) <a href="https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/nhl-team-worst-goal-differential-in-playoffs-single-year" target=_blank>in a playoff series</a>, which would delight everyone crowing about how the Capitals don’t belong. But the best team <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2016/05/06/if-you-get-emotionally-invested-in-a-playoff-hockey-team-youre-a-masochist/" target=_blank>doesn’t always win</a> in playoff hockey, and the Rangers, led by former Capitals Coach Peter Laviolette, are no juggernaut. As my colleague Neil Greenberg points out, New York won seven more games than expected based on its plus-53 goal differential. The Rangers’ 114 points are the fewest by a Presidents’ Trophy winner in a full season since 2015. New York’s goal differential was just the seventh best in the league and the lowest by a Presidents’ Trophy winner in an 82-game season since the Canucks finished at plus-51 in 2011-12. Know what else happened that year? The Canucks lost in the first round to the Kings, who went on to become the first No. 8 seed to win the Stanley Cup.

Just last year, the Bruins, who set an NHL record for points in a season and boasted a plus-128 goal differential, were upset in the first round by the Panthers, who recorded a measly 92 points while outscoring their opponents by just 17 goals.

“Everybody’s going to say we’ve got no business being here, the goal differential, blah, blah, blah — that’s going to be the narrative,” <a href="https://www.nhl.com/capitals/video/postgame-spencer-carbery-6351069035112" target=_blank>Carbery said</a> after Tuesday’s win. “And that’s fine. It’s warranted. It’s a fact. But I know this group isn’t just going to be content showing up in the Stanley Cup playoffs.”

And if not, hey, just making it to this point is an achievement worth celebrating — and laughing about — all offseason.

Stanford University, BA in Psychology

Scott Allen has written about the Capitals, Nationals, Washington Football Team, Wizards and more for The Washington Post's D.C. Sports Bog since 2014.

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The Washington Capitals’ goal differential is bad. They don’t care.

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