Daria Kasatkina and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will square off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is the pick to win this match.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -> 1.9
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.909
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
This will be the 7th time that Daria Kasatkina and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova square off. The head to head is 4-2 for Kasatkina (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Pavlyuchenkova won 6-2 7-6(2) in the 1st round in Doha back in February 2024.
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-11 | 12-8 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Kasatkina got to the 3rd round after beating Cristina Bucsa 5-7 7-65 6-3.
In the 2nd round against Bucsa, Darya recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-65 6-3). During the match, Kasatkina scored 112 points vs Bucsa’s 109. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kasatkina wasn’t able to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 6 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve 10 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 66% of her first serves in, winning 51% (36/71) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Kasatkina broke Bucsa 10 times after converting 83% of her break points (10/12).
Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of her matches (334-193). 5-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kasatkina has a compiled 118-50 record in the last years on clay.
Kasatkina’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Adelaide, Abu Dhabi and Charleston.
Kasatkina has an aggregate 17-9 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
19 - 9win/loss
21
11
LLWLWLWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-11 | 14-7 | 2-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 24-17 | 6-8 | 15-7 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-20 | 12-11 | 10-3 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 6-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Pavlyuchenkova got to the 3rd round after defeating Daria Saville 6-1 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Gavrilova (6-1 6-4). During the match Pavlyuchenkova scored 70 points vs Gavrilova’s 53. Anastasia was very aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Pavlyuchenkova scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova lost the serve once and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Pavlyuchenkova put 66% of her first serves in, winning 77% (30/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (8/20) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Gavrilova 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).
Anastasia’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Linz and Doha.
The Russian has an aggregate 19-9 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 34 | 17 |
| Pts | 112-109 | 70-53 |
| Total Points | 221 | 123 |
| Winners | 36 | 30 |
| %Winners | 32% | 43% |
Both Kasatkina and Pavlyuchenkova played 1 match. At the moment, Daria Kasatkina lost 1 set while Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t conceded a set so far. Kasatkina has played 1 set more than Pavlyuchenkova (3 vs 2). Therefore, Kasatkina played 17 games more than Pavlyuchenkova. Kasatkina scored 36 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, Anastasia bagged 30 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 1 |
| 1st in | 71/108 | 39/59 |
| %1st in | 66% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 36/71 | 30/39 |
| %1st pts | 51% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 8/20 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 40% |
Kasatkina didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Pavlyuchenkova blasted 1 ace . Kasatkina won 51% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Pavlyuchenkova won 77% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 4 |
| Converted | 10/12 | 4/12 |
| % Converted | 83% | 33% |
| Conceded | 14 | 7 |
| Saved | 4 | 6 |
| % Saved | 29% | 86% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 1 |
Kasatkina broke her opponent 10 times with a 83% conversion rate. Darya surrendered her serve 10 times and she saved 29% of the break points that she conceded. Pavlyuchenkova broke her opponent 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. Pavlyuchenkova conceded her serve once and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R2 Bucsa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 7-65 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 34 | |
| pts | 112-109 | 112-109 | |
| Total points | 221 | 221 | |
| Winners | 36 | 36 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 71/108 | 71/108 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 36/71 | 36/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 51% | 51% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 17/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 10 | 10 | |
| Converted | 10/12 | 10/12 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 83% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 14 | |
| Saved | 4/14 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 29% | 29% | |
| Times Broken | 10 | 10 | |
| Pavlyuchenkova | |||
| R2 Gavrilova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 70-53 | 70-53 | |
| Total points | 123 | 123 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 39/59 | 39/59 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 30/39 | 30/39 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/20 | 8/20 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 40% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/12 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWLWWWW
LLWLWLWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Sloane StephensStephens (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-60 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Ons JabeurOns – Leylah Annie FernandezLeylah (7-5 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
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- Cori GauffGauff – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Mayar SherifSherif – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (5-2) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
