Recap: QBs seeking new contracts, how scouting works and rookies to start

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Good morning. Yesterday, J.J. McCarthy fell to me at pick 1.10 in my dynasty superflex league. So yes, it’s a great day. We have plenty to cover:

💰 Paid? Not Love, Purdy or Prescott
📽 NFL scouting behind the scenes
🔦 Rookies expected to start
📃 Fifth-year options finalized

Contract Extensions: Love, Purdy and Prescott

In 2022, Daniel Jones quarterbacked the Giants to their first playoff win since 2011. So New York backed up the Brinks truck for their then-25-year-old QB with a four-year, $160M contract with $82M guaranteed.

As bad as that contract looks today, the floor for three quarterbacks who led their teams to last season’s playoffs is even higher. As Matt Schneidman writes in his review of a potential Jordan Love contract, the salary cap’s unprecedented $30M-plus rise has reset expectations.

Here’s what we could see for three signal callers in need of new deals:

Jordan Love: Spotrac founder Michael Ginnitti told Schneidman, “It’s not hard to envision a four-year, $200M extension for Love,” with $151.5M practically guaranteed across three years. One season as starter can go a long way. Brinks 🚚: Outside Lambeau Field. Today marks the first day he can sign a new deal.

Brock Purdy: Last season, he made $49,402 per game. Patrick Mahomes made more per pass ($53,048). If Purdy plays at a similar level to 2023, expect him to top Love’s $200M. Brinks 🚚: In the garage at 3775 Alameda Ave in Oakland. Purdy isn’t eligible for a new contract until after the upcoming season. Until then, the 49ers are on the Purdy timeline.

Dak Prescott: Jerry Jones and the Cowboys have yet to engage in any “real” contract talks with Prescott, but they want to keep him in Dallas. Around $52M per year should keep the 30-year-old QB there for the next four seasons ($150M guaranteed). Brinks 🚚: Making its way to AT&T Stadium, but with a radio tuned to Green Bay, Detroit, Miami and every other city where a QB could get extended. The Cowboys want to see what happens.

How NFL pre-draft scouting works

The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue spent the last 10 months inside the Rams’ scouting and draft operations, attending everything from college visits to the mansion where they held their draft.

Yesterday, she shared Part I of her must-read, behind the scenes story. It’s an eye-opening look into the pre-draft process, which includes:

Teamwork: A staff of 25 scouts, analysts and consultants make up the crew responsible for helping the Rams find players like Puka Nacua in the fifth round.

Bribery: Ok, perhaps kind gesture is the correct term for what Rams senior personnel executive Taylor Morton does when giving a set of baked goods to the assistants at the front desks of coaching offices across the country, earning good graces with key facilitators.

Data: From the Rams’ data and information processing system (JAARS, “Joint After-Action Review System) to a leadership assessment called HEXACO, the team reviews everything, encoding much of it with colors and emojis.

If you’ve ever wondered what the NFL scouting process looks like, start with Jourdan’s first installment. And today, she released Part II, which includes the fascinating backstory on the Puka Nacua pick in 2023.

What Dianna’s Hearing: 49ers WR update

Over the last few weeks, I was told by multiple sources that the 49ers had spoken to teams about trades for either WR Brandon Aiyuk or WR Deebo Samuel. GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan had hoped a trade could provide salary relief while adding draft assets.

This week, Lynch claims “we’re past that now,” as in they aren’t going to be trading their players. You probably shouldn’t bet your house on that. I don’t doubt Lynch wants to keep them, but the 49ers might need to move some of their high-paid stars, especially after drafting WR Ricky Pearsall will their first-round pick and WR Jacob Cowing in the fourth round.

Aiyuk, in the final year of his rookie deal, is seeking a new contract, and the 49ers signed Samuel to an extension two years ago. We will see if trade talks heat up again come training camp. All it takes is one team in need of a wide receiver. The 49ers will listen.

Back to you, Jacob.

Rookie Starts, Part II

Yesterday, we listed the rookies expected to start for the 19 teams leading Josh Kendall’s Power Rankings, broken into Tier 1 (Contenders) and Tier 2 (Playoff-bound). Today, the remaining 13:

Tier 3: Resets

Vikings: J.J. McCarthy will sit to begin the year, while Dallas Turner, the consensus best edge rusher in the draft, should see starting-level playing time. Rookie kicker Will Reichard is expected to start.
Chargers: OT Joe Alt can start immediately, as should WR Ladd McConkey and LB Junior Colson.
Falcons: They have their QBs of the present and future, sure, but only LB Bralen Trice is likely to start Week 1 — a luxury for a team without a winning record since 2017.
Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels is this group’s sole undisputed starter, but Luke McCaffrey could start as the slot WR. DT Jer’Zhan Newton, DB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnott and OL Brandon Coleman should see plenty of action.
Patriots: QB Drake Maye should sit to start the season, but Ja’Lynn Polk could play WR2 and Caedan Wallace will compete at LT. I really like WR Javon Baker, too.
Raiders: No. 13 pick TE Brock Bowers projects to start from day one, along with RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas Jr. replaces Calvin Ridley as a starter alongside Gabe Davis, but no other rookie should start Week 1.

Tier 4: Reasons for hope

Giants: Malik Nabers will immediately slot into their WR1 role. Andru Phillips could start at slot corner while Tyler Nubin starts at safety.
Titans: JC Latham should start immediately while transitioning to LT, and DT T’Vondre Sweat could start alongside two-time Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons. LB Cedric Gray will compete to start.
Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.’s jerseys may not be available, but he’s one of the clearest starters in this entire draft. Edge Darius Robinson and CB Max Melton will compete to start.
Saints: OT Taliese Fuaga and CB Kool-Aid McKinstry could both see starting roles early this season.
Broncos: 24-year-old QB Bo Nix gives Denver hope at the most important position in football. He should be the starter by Week 1. Troy Franklin could emerge from a crowded WR room.
Panthers: RB Jonathan Brooks should eventually win the role, but WR Xavier Legette is the sole rookie expected to start Week 1.

Around the NFL

DJ Chark agreed to terms on a one-year deal with the Chargers, worth up to $5M.

The Steelers declined to exercise the fifth-year options for RB Najee Harris (avoiding nearly $7M in guaranteed money) and QB Justin Fields ($25M). Both will be free agents after this season.

Speaking of: Yesterday was the deadline for teams to decide whether to exercise the fifth-year options of players drafted in 2021’s first round. Out of 32 players picked in the first round, below is the final tally. Can you guess who drafted the only such player to be cut?

It was the Raiders’ No. 17 pick, OL Alex Leatherwood, most recently a Browns practice-squadder.

Jacob’s Picks

📕 NFL execs unfiltered, Part II. Mike Sando polled NFL execs on AFC teams’ draft classes, including the Broncos: “Sean Payton’s system is optimal for (Bo Nix). Look, I don’t want him to be successful, but I think he is going to be legit there.” (The Athletic)

📺 Get inside the room. NFL teams like the Eagles and Jets shared full videos from inside their draft rooms. But if you watch anything, it should probably be Keon Coleman’s first 24 hours with the Bills. (YouTube)

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