NBA Playoffs expert picks, odds for Sunday’s Game 4s: Knicks at Pacers, Nuggets at Timberwolves

MINNEAPOLIS , MN - MAY 10: Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver Nuggets reacts to making a mid-range jumper against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Friday, May 10, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
By Hannah Vanbiber
May 12, 2024

They’re the words any fan of good playoff action loves to hear: “Looks like we have ourselves a series.” Perhaps prematurely, those words hung in the air on Friday night when two teams that were down 0-2 in their playoff series found a way to fight back. On Sunday, both those series move on to Game 4, and those same two teams aim to even the score.

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Friday’s Game 3s could not have looked more different, though. The Indiana Pacers moved one step closer to catching up with the New York Knicks in a game that fit the profile for this era of the rivalry: neck and neck, blow for blow nearly the whole way through. The other Friday night matchup also stuck to its Game 2 recipe — a blowout win — but this time, the roles were reversed, with the Denver Nuggets avenging their 26-point Game 2 loss at home with a 27-point win in Minnesota Timberwolves’ territory.

Can the Pacers even the series before heading back to Madison Square Garden? Are the Nuggets back to business as the defending champions, or will the Timberwolves surge again?

Yet again, the home teams are favored in both Game 4s, but by a narrower spread than the Game 3 odds. Here’s a look at Sunday’s NBA Playoff games with staff picks, odds and previews.

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No. 2 New York Knicks at No. 6 Indiana Pacers

How to watch:

3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Series odds: Knicks -225, Pacers +185

New York leads series 2-1

The Pacers’ Game 3 win was no surprise. They were in both games in New York and were comfortably in the lead for most of Game 2, but fumbled in the end.

The surprise here was how well the Knicks played with OG Anunoby out and Jalen Brunson still hobbled with a foot injury. After getting four 40-point games in a row, Brunson’s injury in Game 2 slowed him down significantly. On Friday, he didn’t get points on the board until the end of the first quarter. He was clearly not himself, and yet he still managed to get 26 points, far below his current playoff pace, but not a terrible night compared to, say, Tyrese Haliburton’s six points in Game 1.

It was Donte DiVincenzo who really filled the gap for the Knicks. He scored 35 points on 12-of-26 shooting and went 7-of-11 from three. Josh Hart contributed with 18 rebounds and four assists, and two bench players, Miles McBride and Alec Burks, got double digits on the scoreboard. The Knicks shot a lights-out 51.9 percent from three (14-of-27).

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On the Pacers side, Haliburton kept up his pace (sorry) from Game 2, getting 35 points, seven assists and four rebounds. Pascal Siakam had 26 with seven rebounds and one assist. Compared to the Knicks, they struggled from the 3-point line, going 37.5 percent (12-of-32). Haliburton was raining the attempts and went 6-for-16 from deep.

An electrifying moment in the fourth quarter saw Brunson hit a 28-foot step-back jump shot to tie the game at 106, only for Andrew Nembhard to drill a 31-foot step-back jump shot 25 seconds later to go up 109-106. The Knicks didn’t score again.

It’ll be tough for New York to get a win in Indiana if Brunson and Anunoby can’t get fully healthy.

Expert picks for Knicks at Pacers

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No. 2 Denver Nuggets at No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves

How to watch:

8 p.m. ET on TNT

Series odds: Timberwolves -210, Nuggets +175

Minnesota leads series 2-1

The defending champs are back. On the ropes after losing both games at home, the Nuggets put their heads down and determined to win their first game on the road against this young and hot Timberwolves core. Denver shot 53.8 percent and 48.3 from three. The freshly crowned MVP Nikola Jokić was one assist short of a triple-double with 24 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists. He also had three steals and three blocks.

Jamal Murray, who has not played at 100 percent this series as he nursed an injury, looked good in Game 3. He scored 24 points and added five assists and four rebounds. All five Nuggets starters scored at least 12 points, and the bench got some good action with 23 points combined, thanks in large part to the fact Denver was far enough ahead by the fourth quarter to sit their stars.

On Minnesota’s side, it looked like they almost came out too hot and hyped, not finding a great rhythm. Denver kept the pace this time and quickly snuffed that energy. Rudy Gobert was back after missing Game 2 to be present for the birth of his son. Oddly, his return did not seem to help. (Although I’m sure any parent of a newborn can easily explain why he might not have been at his freshest…) Gobert had six points and four rebounds.

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Anthony Edwards was the Minnesota’s high-scorer, but also just wasn’t able to get the same momentum he had in Games 1 and 2. He scored 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting and 3-of-8 from three.

The question here is: Did the more experienced Nuggets iron out the kinks, or was this just a weird off-night for the younger T’wolves? It’s hard to imagine another blowout loss at home by this talented team.

Expert picks for Nuggets at Timberwolves


Picks standings


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(Photo of Jamal Murray: AAron Ontiveroz / The Denver Post)

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Hannah Vanbiber

Hannah Vanbiber is a staff editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Hannah previously wrote for Gaming Today, New York Sports Day, Rocky Top Insider, MLIVE, and other sports betting outlets as a freelance writer. She started her journalism career in Chattanooga, Tennessee, as a reporter and editor covering local sports. Follow Hannah on Twitter @HannahVanbiber