Consensus NBA Mock Draft: The lottery picks, starting with Wembanyama

Usually the top handful of picks in the NBA Draft are all but scripted and things don’t get interesting until further down the board. Not this year. The intrigue starts with No. 2 and whether Charlotte will even hold on to the No. 2 pick.

What follows is the NBC Sports NBA Mock Draft for the lottery picks. This is a consensus based on other mock drafts as well as talking to sources around the league about where they have players on their boards. I am not a scout, I don’t have their eye and haven’t watched hours of tape on all these players, which is why we are leaning on those that have — ESPN, The Athletic, the Ringer and more — but modified based on my sourcing.

Here is how the lottery shakes out in our NBA Mock Draft:

1. San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama, 7'4" center, France. The most hyped prospect of a generation, this is an easy call. The Spurs will bring him along more slowly than some of the loud voices in the NBA punditry would like, but the Spurs know what they’re doing. They have a guy who can do this.

2. Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller, 6’9 wing, Alabama. As it has been for a while, reports continue to surface that the Hornets are leaning into Miller, a wing with all the tools who seems a natural fit next to LaMelo Ball. If it got to this point then even outgoing owner Michael Jordan — who watched both Henderson and Miller workout and met with them — has signed off on bringing in the Alabama star.

3. Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson, 6’2” point guard, G-League Ignite. It likely may not be the Pelicans drafting in this spot — or, they may be drafting for someone else such as the Pelicans or Clippers — but there is no chance the dynamic point guard falls past this spot. I’ve watch Henderson play, spoken with him, and for my money he has star written all over him.

4. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, 6’6” guard, Overtime Elite. In a stacked draft he is seen as the best pure athlete on the board. Houston may not want another player it has to develop and could instead pick a more polished player like Cam Whitmore, but it’s hard to pass up all that athleticism.

5. Detroit Pistons: Cam Whitmore, 6’6” wing, Villanova. The Pistons had the worst record in the NBA then the worst luck in the draft lottery, falling as far as they mathematically could to fifth, but in Whitmore they get a guy who impressed in workouts and can go get a bucket. If he can become more of a playmaker, watch out.

6. Orlando Magic: Ausar Thompson, 6’6” wing, Overtime Elite. They could go with Walker out of Houston here, but do they need another frontline player? Ausar doesn’t have the off-the-charts athleticism of his twin brother (taken No. 4 in this draft) but he put up better numbers for Overtime Elite because he has a more polished game at this point and a jump shot.

7. Indiana Pacers: Jarace Walker, 6’8” forward, Houston. One of the best defenders in the draft and the Pacers could use that along the front line whatever the future holds for Myles Turner. Has the potential to become a prototypical stretch four that teams are looking for.

8. Washington Wizards: Anthony Black, 6’6” guard, Arkansas. The Wizards are finally starting the overdue rebuild and Black can be the point guard of the future for the team, with good size and a high IQ game. Just needs to develop his shot.

9. Utah Jazz: Taylor Hendricks, 6’8” forward, University of Central Florida. One of the best defenders in this draft and he can hit the 3, which means he will fit well long-term along the front line with Walker Kessler.

10. Dallas Mavericks: Dereck Lively II, 7’1” center, Duke. The Mavericks desperately want to trade this pick, but whether they keep it or not there are a lot of Lively fans in NBA front offices and someone is going to take him here. The Duke center shot up draft boards because he looks like a modern NBA center who can protect the rim on one end and space the floor on the other (think Brook Lopez in potential impact).

11. Orlando Magic: Grady Dick, 6’8” wing, Kansas. Teams do not go wrong taking the best shooter in the draft, and Dick is that — 40.3% from 3 last season with a quick release and works well off the ball. He’s got a spot in the NBA.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bilal Coulibaly, 6’7” wing, France. Nobody shot up draft boards faster in recent months than the guy everyone fell in love with when they went to watch the Metropolitans 92s to see Wembanyama. Coulibaly is a two-way wing who plays a high IQ game, has a fluid but explosive athleticism, and while he needs to develop this seems a natural fit next to SGA.

13. Toronto Raptors: Cason Wallace, 6’3” guard, Kentucky. Maybe the Raptors go with Kobe Bufkin out of Michigan here (some have him higher on their boards), but I have a soft spot for Wallace in this spot. As for his fit in the NBA, he’s a Kentucky guard, and here is an abbreviated list of former Kentucky guards who got out from under John Calipari’s system and thrived in the NBA: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, and Tyler Herro (Bam Adebayo would like you to know it’s not just guards, too).

14. New Orleans Pelicans: Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6’6” guard, Indiana. Nobody knows what the Pelicans are going to do on draft night, whether they will use this pick or send it somewhere along with Zion Williamson, but we will go with the well-rounded, two-way, high-IQ game of Hood-Schifino here (but don’t be surprised if it’s Michigan’s Kobe Bufkin).