Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton took a calculated gamble on their Ryder Cup futures when they turned their back on the PGA Tour to join the breakaway LIV Golf, and it appears their risk might not pay off.
The duo joined the Saudi Arabia-backed tour in December and January respectively, signing huge contracts and joining forces on the Legion XIII team captained by Rahm. But in return for taking the money, uncertainty was placed on their Ryder Cup futures.
The duo had hoped a resolution could be found by the PGA Tour and LIV Golf to heal the divide in the professional game, or Ryder Cup qualification rules be altered to accommodate LIV players.
European players must be active members of the DP World Tour if they want to be considered for Ryder Cup selection, but the Wentworth-based circuit has suspended its members who have jumped ship for LIV. And according to The Telegraph, Hatton and Rahm – a two-time major champion – have received one-tournament suspensions from the DP World Tour for each of the four LIV events they have teed it up in this season.
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With 10 LIV events remaining this season and both men obliged to play in all of them, more suspensions are set to follow, putting them at risk of losing their DP World Tour cards, and ruling them out of Ryder Cup contention altogether.
Many players have called for the qualifying process to be amended to open the door for LIV players and ensure Europe has the strongest team possible, so Rahm and Hatton – who starred in the victory in Rome in October – could find a way into captain Luke Donald's team at Bethpage Black in New York next year. But if they don't, here is how the team could look...
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The certainties
Rory McIlroy started the year in style with victory at the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour, but it has been a struggle for the Northern Irishman since returning to his US base, with a best finish of T19 in five PGA Tour starts this season. Nonetheless, the seven-time Ryder Cup veteran will certainly be in Luke Donald's team at Bethpage next year.
The same can be said for world number four Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian has also had a tricky start to 2024 after a hugely impressive season last year, but he will certainly make the cut for Donald's team.
If the experienced duo of Rahm and Hatton are deemed ineligible for Ryder Cup duty, Donald will doubtless place increased value on the experience accrued by Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick, who at the bare minimum will get a captain's pick.
Ludvig Aberg, too, will be in the team. The 24-year-old Swede picked up two valuable points as a rookie in Rome, and he has made a stunning start in the paid ranks after turning professional less than a year ago. He has soared to ninth in the Official World Golf Ranking since claiming his first PGA Tour win at The RSM Classic in November, and he will be a fixture of the European team for the next two decades.
On the fringes
Justin Rose, Robert MacIntyre, Sepp Straka and Nicolai Hojgaard were all part of the European team in Rome and all four have a chance of being involved again, although MacIntyre and Hojgaard may find it harder to qualify since becoming full-time PGA Tour members this season.
The quartet offers a nice blend of raw talent and deep reserves of experience, but their positions are certainly under threat for Bethpage and they will need to perform well over the next 12 months and beyond to be sure of a place in Donald's team. Denmark's Hojgaard has made the best start this season of the four, sitting 46th in the FedEx Cup rankings.
Wildcard contenders
France's Matthieu Pavon has made a wonderful start to his debut season as a PGA Tour member, sitting sixth in the FedEx Cup standings after winning the Farmers Insurance Open and finishing third in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. If he can maintain his form over the next year and beyond, he will likely force his way into Donald's plans.
Belgium's Thomas Detry and Finland's Sami Valimaki are names to keep an eye on after solid starts to the campaign in the US, while on the DP World Tour, the Danish duo of Rasmus Hojgaard and Thorbjorn Olesen have accrued some decent results.
Perhaps former Masters champion Danny Willett could play his way into contention if he finally gets a bit of good luck on the injury front, with the 2016 Green Jacket winner, 36, recovering from shoulder surgery.
And as Aberg proved in 2023, a player can rise from nowhere in a short space of time and force their way into Ryder Cup consideration, so the door is wide open for new names to work their way into the mix with 18 months to go.
