Kevin Gorman’s Take 5: Despite poor projections, Pirates plan to surprise people
For all of the focus on their shortcomings at the start of spring training, the Pittsburgh Pirates are out to prove something to their naysayers: They are going to surprise people this season.
After back-to-back 100-loss campaigns, the Pirates stunned the baseball world by starting 2023 with the best record in the National League through April. They finished 76-86, a 14-win improvement that taught the Pirates that they can compete with playoff-caliber teams, motivated by witnessing clinching celebrations.
When the Pirates opened the season Thursday afternoon at Miami, they did so with their sights set on becoming playoff contenders. The odds, of course, are against them. There is no clear-cut favorite in the NL Central, but the Pirates never have won the division and haven’t clinched a wild card since 2015, when Andrew McCutchen was the catalyst.
But there is internal belief the Pirates will be better than projected. Of course, the predictions have them finishing in fourth or last place: ESPN gave them 8% odds to make the playoffs, winning 73 games. The Athletic predicts 74 wins, FanGraphs has them at 77 and Sporting News says 79.
“I think for us, that first month last year, that’s definitely what we’re capable of doing,” Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes said of the 20-9 start, which was followed by going 8-18 in May. “I think just the last piece is being consistent. We started out really well. The next month was the exact opposite. That just comes with experience.
“Whenever guys start to struggle … it’s just figuring out what works for you to get right back on track. That’s what the good teams do. They have a little skid, but they’re able to flip the page pretty quick. That was the one thing that Cutch and some of those older guys last year helped us with and why we were able to finish pretty good. Because it’s a long season, so there’s going to be times when you go into little ruts. Everyone’s just got to do their job and figure out how to get back to the best version of themselves every day.”
1. Leading off
The best version of the Pirates starts with Oneil Cruz filling gaping holes by batting leadoff and playing shortstop. However, Connor Joe hit first Thursday against Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo, and Cruz batted sixth.
Cruz showed he hasn’t lost his swing by crushing team-highs of seven home runs — all with exit velocities of 104.9 mph or better — and 14 RBIs this spring. And he doesn’t appear to have lost a step, either.
“Obviously, he can hit a homer,” Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds said. “But if he can draw a walk, it’s not going to take much to score him so it’s going to help our offense be more dynamic.”
Often overlooked is the Pirates made a 14-win improvement even though Cruz played only nine games before fracturing his left ankle. If the 6-foot-7, 230-pound Cruz lives up to the hype, the Pirates have a potential power-hitting superstar. If not, they have an error-prone shortstop with a high strikeout rate.
Chances are he’s somewhere in between.
2. Loading up
The batting order is better, with Cruz expected to be followed by Reynolds and Hayes most games. Jack Suwinski, who led the team with 26 homers last year, is likely to bat cleanup against right-handers with McCutchen or Henry Davis available against lefties. Rowdy Tellez has power from the left side, Jared Triolo gets on base and Michael A. Taylor has pop and speed but brings a high strikeout rate.
Compare that to the 2023 Opening Day lineup: Cruz, Reynolds, McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Hayes, Suwinski, Ji Hwan Bae and Austin Hedges. Only two years ago, the Opening Day lineup looked like this: Daniel Vogelbach, Reynolds, Hayes, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Ben Gamel, Roberto Perez and Chad Kuhl.
The Pirates have five players with 20-homer seasons on their resume in Reynolds, Suwinski, McCutchen, Tellez and Taylor, while Cruz, Davis and Hayes have flashed power potential.
“I think it’s pretty exciting, looking around at the hitters we have and the potential of having a really dangerous lineup,” Suwinski said. “We get to see the guys every day working for it and hungry for it, so we get the inside look at everyone getting after it and all the possibilities these guys are capable of.”
3. Rotating
The starting pitching remains a major question mark. The Pirates are banking $77 million through 2028 on Mitch Keller to be the staff ace, counting on bounce-back seasons by left-handers Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales and hoping rookie right-hander Jared Jones continues to command his fastball for strikes.
The inclusion of lefty Bailey Falter in the rotation is a head scratcher, for sure, given his struggles this spring. But a deeper bullpen could allow for some creativity, if the Pirates want to use an opener for Falter or have him pitch in tandem with righties Roansy Contreras or Luis Ortiz or lefty Josh Fleming.
It’s only a matter of time before the Pirates promote Paul Skenes, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, and he is expected to occupy a spot in the starting rotation for years to come.
They also have top-100 prospects in righty Bubba Chandler and lefty Anthony Solometo, and Braxton Ashcraft was impressive in spring training. Plus, the Pirates signed Eric Lauer to a minor-league deal, giving them another veteran lefty, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows should return after the All-Star break.
Come July, the starting pitching could look drastically different.
4. Concerns
For all of the potential positives, the Pirates have very few sure things.
Davis is unproven behind the plate. Tellez has a history of struggling against breaking pitches. Triolo is still new to playing with Cruz and turning double plays at second base. Cruz remains erratic on throws. Hayes has had trouble staying healthy. Suwinski has struggled against lefties. Taylor has a career 30% strikeout rate. Reynolds is playing a different outfield position for the third consecutive year.
On top of that, second baseman/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae and catcher Yasmani Grandal will start the season on the 10-day injured list, with righty relievers Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski on the 15-day IL. Fireman Dauri Moreta was lost for the season to elbow surgery, joining Johan Oviedo and Endy Rodriguez.
The Pirates are deeper but still have little margin for error.
5. Predictions
Hayes will earn his first All-Star selection. And win his first Platinum Glove. Cruz will become the first Pirates shortstop to hit more than 20 homers in a season. And their first middle infielder to hit 30. McCutchen will hit his 300th homer at PNC Park. In the home opener. Aroldis Chapman will be the first Pirates pitcher to touch triple digits on the radar gun. Jones will be the second. Contreras will return to the starting rotation. Ortiz will move into a high-leverage role. Skenes will make his major-league debut by Memorial Day. Termarr Johnson will make his in September.
The Pirates will finish 82-80.
Kevin Gorman is a TribLive reporter covering the Pirates. A Baldwin native and Penn State graduate, he joined the Trib in 1999 and has covered high school sports, Pitt football and basketball and was a sports columnist for 10 years. He can be reached at kgorman@triblive.com.
Remove the ads from your TribLIVE reading experience but still support the journalists who create the content with TribLIVE Ad-Free.