When Unai Emery returns to Arsenal on Sunday, he will know the fates of both his former and current team hang firmly in the balance.
Arsenal are back where they want to be, where they had hoped Emery would take them in the post Arsene Wenger era – challenging for both the Premier League and Champions League.
Under Mikel Arteta this enthralling fine line being tread had Arsenal top heading into the weekend, while their European prospects rest on a winner-takes-all clash with Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
In a week’s time, therefore, the outlook could look very different, and the same could be said for Aston Villa as they juggle their dreams of silverware with reaching next season’s Champions League – an unthinkable combination just two years ago.
Few doubt Villa are punching above their weight, but amid heightened expectations in this dizzying new reality, along comes jeopardy and niggling doubts.
On Thursday, Villa’s win over Lille mirrored their season so far. For most of this match they were leading, flying high, with Villa Park rocking, only for a late goal to burst that bubble.
“It was quite up and down, and the stadium felt quite flat at the end,” John McGinn said. “They’re a very good side but we allowed them back in, we relaxed a bit and that’s just not acceptable when you’re chasing what we’re chasing. We’ve got a lot of improving to do.”
This win that felt like a draw followed an actual draw with Brentford, where having led 2-0 and then trailed 3-2, an eventual 3-3 had Ollie Watkins bemoaning Villa’s lack of a “big-team mentality where they kill games off”.
This is perhaps no surprise for a side that were closer to relegation as recently as 2022, but nevertheless this inexperience threatens to bite at a key juncture.
Though still favourites to win the Europa Conference League, which could end their 28-year wait for a major trophy, their inability to keep a clean sheet against Lille – despite Emiliano Martinez’s best efforts – could haunt them in the return leg at Lille on Thursday.
And in the Premier League, there is a wild uncertainty at a time where results have been patchy since their three-game winning run in late February going into March.
Just one league win in five has followed, with Tottenham Hotspur humiliating Villa on their own turf in March and subsequently taking control of the race to finish fourth.
The uncertainty arises from whether fifth will be enough for a Champions League spot, with England currently trailing Italy and Germany for the two extra places granted for next season’s new-look, 36-team competition.
With Italy leading the coefficient way, England appear to be in direct competition with Germany for that second additional spot, meaning Arsenal and West Ham did Villa no favours in midweek against Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen respectively.
It is therefore another case of checking the outlook in a week’s time, when the five English clubs competing in Europe will likely diminish, especially after Liverpool’s heavy home defeat to Atalanta.
These are means largely out of Villa’s control, as are their hopes of finishing fourth, but fortunes can change in an instant and the trip to Arsenal is no foregone conclusion.
Villa beat Arsenal 1-0 in December, riding their luck at times, but also riding the wave that had seen them beat Manchester City just days prior.
Meanwhile, Emery’s only previous match at the Emirates since his Arsenal stint there was a 0-0 with Villarreal in the Europa League semi-finals in 2021, a goalless draw where Emery outsmarted Arteta and Arsenal were reduced to just the one shot on target as Villarreal progressed 2-1 on aggregate.
Villarreal went on to beat Manchester United in the final, and while that serves as a reminder of Emery’s European prowess that Villa hope will take them to Athens in May, there is also the warning for Arsenal that he still has the capacity to suck the life out of a stadium that would end up jeering his name.
Deflating Arsenal’s title bid would be some way to mark 1,001 games as a manager, therefore, but more importantly for Villa, it would make for a mighty statement before Spurs face the Gunners themselves before travelling to Chelsea – another two matches dripping in narrative.