Manchester City and Arsenal’s quarter-final defeats have left the Premier League’s chances of gaining a fifth Champions League spot hanging by a thread.
Tottenham, Manchester United and Newcastle, the three clubs pushing for a fifth-placed finish, had been hoping to benefit from the introduction of “European Performance Slots” in the new, expanded Champions League format.
This means two leagues can earn an extra slot in next season’s competition, but it is now almost guaranteed those spots are going to Serie A and the Bundesliga.
But there is still a very slim chance of redemption – here’s what the English clubs have to do in Europe to ensure the Premier League gets five Champions League spots next season.
How the European Performance Slots work
The two European Performance Slots given to leagues will be decided on this season’s Uefa coefficient score.
Each nation’s coefficient score is decided by dividing the amount of “points” they have by the number of clubs from that country entered in European competition in the respective season.
These points are accrued through results and entry into different stages of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.
In each competition, any win is worth two points, while a draw earns one.
And in the Champions League, participation in the group stage is worth four points per club, with any side that makes it into the last 16 then earnings five points each.
Qualification for the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final are then worth one point per club.
In the Europa League, winning your group earns four points, while runners-up get two. Qualification for the knockout stages are worth one point per round.
And in the Europa Conference League, group stage winners get one point each, while runners-up and qualification for each knockout round are worth one.
England have the highest Uefa coefficient score over the past five seasons by some distance, with their 103.678 over 15 points ahead of Spain’s 88.489.
But as the European Performance Slots are decided on the previous season alone, the Premier League is trailing behind the Bundesliga as it stands.
Current Uefa coefficient standings 2023-24
Correct as of 17 April 2024
- 1) Italy – 18.428 (4/7 clubs remaining)
- 2) Germany – 17.642 (3/7 clubs remaining)
- 3) England – 16.875 (3/8 clubs remaining)
- 4) Spain – 15.312 (3/8 clubs remaining)
- 5) France – 15.250 (3/6 clubs remaining)
- 6) Belgium – 13.600 (1/5 clubs remaining)
What English clubs need to do to secure a fifth Champions League spot
As qualification for the final rounds of each competition is only worth one point for each club, as well as a win and draw earning two and one point respectively regardless of competition, every club left in European competition is as important as the other.
Heading into April, Arsenal and Manchester City remained in the Champions League, Liverpool and West Ham were in the Europa League and Aston Villa in the Conference League.
And what was relevant for the Premier League was how those clubs performed compared to the three Bundesliga clubs still left in Europe at the quarter-final stages – Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, and Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League.
Dortmund booked their semi-final spot by beating Atletico Madrid on Tuesday 16 April, and then it got a little shakier for the Premier League’s hopes a day later when Bayern knocked out Arsenal, made worse when City lost to Real Madrid in a penalty shootout.
The death knell for England could come on Thursday, if West Ham are knocked out by Leverkusen, whom they trail 2-0.
It would be beneficial if Liverpool could overturn their 3-0 deficit against Atalanta, but this seems highly unlikely, and so it could be just Villa left in Europe come Friday – they lead their Conference League tie against Lille 2-1 heading into the return leg in France.
This all means it is very unlikely the Premier League will get a fifth Champions League spot, unless there are a series of miracles on Thursday.
Aston Villa and either West Ham or Liverpool would likely have to win their respective competitions, while the Hammers need to overturn their deficit to Leverkusen to provide Spurs and Manchester United any hope.