Liz Truss was enjoying herself as she celebrated the publication of her memoirs with a party in central London. She was, as ever, unrepentant. “It has been a rollercoaster ride,” she said of her 49-day premiership. “I don’t regret that I did it. I am very grateful to David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson for giving me the opportunity.”
Cheered on by her supporters — those on the right who believe the values that Truss represents should be at the core of the Conservative Party’s future — she issued a rallying cry. “A lot of people ask, ‘Why did you write this book, Liz? Haven’t you upset the liberal establishment enough? Aren’t there enough mean op-eds about you in The Times already?’ If we really want to deliver the conservative policies that we all believe in, we are going to have to do things differently. We need to be bolder, we need to be braver. We have to build up that campaign.
For Rishi Sunak, his predecessor’s latest salvo was an unwelcome reminder of the all-too-recent past.
Inevitably, Labour have seized on her many interventions, with Sir Keir Starmer making Truss the centrepiece of prime minister’s questions this week. Her wild, unfunded tax cuts, he said, had left millions of people paying the price in the form of higher mortgages.
The prime minister — who has long refrained from directly criticising Truss, amid concerns about re-opening old wounds — was left with no choice but to go on the offensive.
During the Tory leadership contest he had repeatedly warned about Truss’s economic policies. “I did have the stomach to argue out loud about her economic policies,” he told the Commons. “I had the conviction to say that they were wrong, not once but twice.”
One senior government figure said Sunak had been infuriated by Truss’s unhelpful media blitz and had finally decided he had nothing to lose by defining himself against his predecessor.
“People have been telling him to do it ever since he got into Downing Street but he has always backed away from it because he was worried about party unity,” the source said. “But he’s come to the conclusion that he has nothing to lose because he’s still 20 points behind in the polls and the party is far from united. The trouble is, of course, it is too late.”
Within Downing Street there is growing talk of an election as early as June or July. Part of the logic for waiting until autumn was the hope that interest rates would be falling, planes would be taking off for Rwanda and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, would have time to announce further tax cuts on the eve of an election campaign.
However, one senior government figure said Sunak now thought that further tax cuts in the autumn would “not move the dial”, while the case for going to the country early was increasing.
“We all hoped that the national insurance cut in the budget would give us a lift in the polls but, of course, it didn’t,” the source said. “The PM has been pretty clear that he doesn’t think another cut will make any difference.”
Adding to the case for a June vote is the fear that the number of small-boat crossings will continue to rise over the summer even if the first flights get off the ground to Rwanda. “The chances are it won’t have an immediate effect,” one aide said. “So are you better off going to the country early, before Labour can say the policy isn’t working?”
Among those who have raised the prospect of a June election is Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, although sources stressed that this was in the context of “war-gaming” the advantages and disadvantages of different dates.
Others suggest that Sunak remains likely to go long. They say that the autumn statement is viewed more as a “proof point” — a chance to demonstrate that the Tories are committed to cutting taxes — than a magic bullet, and that the main advantage of waiting is that it would allow the economy more time to turn around.
The argument for an autumn election has always in part been predicated on expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates twice in the run-up to a November poll, helping to make mortgage-payers feel better off.
But figures this week showed that inflation fell by less than expected in March, to 3.2 per cent, while chill winds from the United States, where the Federal Reserve has warned of prolonged higher interest rates, do not augur well. Traders now think they will be lucky to get one interest-rate cut and that it may not come until November.
Those inside Downing Street said that much would depend on the local — and perhaps even more importantly, mayoral — elections on May 2. “If we hold on in the West Midlands and Tees Valley then there is a strong argument to say that you take the initiative and go for it,” a Downing Street source said. “You have the element of surprise while, if you wait until the autumn, you’ve basically boxed yourself in and allow Labour to attack you for hanging on.”
The prime minister himself is said to be in better form than he was before Easter, having gone away to Yorkshire for a break and come back somewhat less despondent about his electoral fortunes. “He’s in fight mode,” one ally said.
One minister agreed that Sunak had seemed more optimistic recently. “Angela Rayner is helping. If we hold on to Ben [Houchen as Tees Valley mayor] and Andy [Street in the West Midlands], Rwanda is passed and the economy continues to improve … you can see why there is more buoyancy in the PM now,” the source said.
But, as ever, Sunak remains at the mercy of events. The prime minister’s Safety of Rwanda Bill was hit by yet more delays after the Lords inflicted further defeats, meaning it will now not become law until next week at the earliest.
Sunak admitted on Friday that his patience had “run thin” and insisted that “we will get this done on Monday” without further prevarication or delay.
He declined to repeat his previous commitment, however, to getting the first flights off by the spring, with early summer now looking more likely, legal challenges notwithstanding.
Sunak has been clear that he will ignore any injunction issued by the European Court of Human Rights and allies hope that he can use it to create a political moment before the election.
The Tories believe that their campaign targeting Rayner, the Labour deputy leader, over her living arrangements is cutting through.
On Wednesday The Times revealed that the police are now investigating multiple allegations against Rayner, amid questions of whether she broke electoral law. In a poll published this week by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, one in five voters said they were aware of the allegations — significantly ahead of the next most prominent political story.
However, on Thursday the focus turned back to the Conservatives after The Times disclosed that a Tory MP was being investigated over claims he misused campaign funds. Mark Menzies, the MP for Fylde, allegedly made a late-night phone call saying he had been locked up by “bad people who were demanding thousands of pounds”. While Menzies denied the claims, he has resigned the whip.
The allegations mean that less than a fortnight after William Wragg, another Tory MP, admitted his involvement in a honeytrap sexting scandal, the party finds itself mired in further accusations of sleaze.
One former minister said: “The issue we have is that even if we land a hit [on Labour] we get one or two days out of it until it’s wiped out by something else. It’s like those workplace signs, ‘0 days since the last crisis’.”
