Humza Yousaf says he’s ‘very confident’ of winning no confidence vote and he will ‘compromise’ with critics – as it happened

Humza Yousaf is expected to make an announcement about housing this afternoon. It is expected early afternoon rather than late afternoon.

Despite a report in the Times this morning saying he was considering his position, he is not going to be announcing his resignation, the BBC says.

Although Humza Yousaf cancelled the speech he was due to give this afternoon, he is now expected to hold a press briefing this afternoon, Sky News is reporting.

The Tory no confidence motion was intended to force the resignation of Humza Yousaf. But the Labour one (see 10.53am) is more serious, because it is intended to force an early election.

And it is not hard to see why the two opposition parties at Holyrood are pursuing different tactics. The Conservatives are currently the second largest party in the Scottish parliament, but the polls suggest they could lose almost a third of their seats if an election were held now. But Labour might come close to doubling their number of MSPs.

Currently the SNP have 63 seats, the Tories 31 and Labour 22. This Ballot Box Scotland seat projection says current polling suggests an election would leave the SNP with 46 seats, Labour would end up with 41, and the Tories would be down to 22.

Will the Scottish Conservatives back the Labour no confidence motion in the government? Given what Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, has said about the SNP government, it is hard to see how they could defend not voting with Labour. But, in terms of electoral logic, it would be a classic example of turkeys legislating for the December 25 festive holiday bill.

The Scottish Greens said yesterday they would vote for the Tory no confidence motion. They have a particular grievance againt Yousaf, who sacked the two Green ministers when he abruptly cancelled the SNP/Green power-sharing deal yesterday. But the Greens are more supportive of the SNP as a whole. According to the recent polling, they might gain seats in an early election (going from eight MSPs to 10). But the Greens are pro-independence, and the polls suggest the pro-independence majority in the parliamnet would disappear after an early election.

The Liberal Democrats have got every incentive to push for an early election. Currently they have just four seats, but the seat projection suggests an election now would give them 10.

At Holyrood Scottish Labour has now tabled its own no confidence motion. And it is significantly different from the one tabled by the Scottish Conservatives yesterday.

The Tory is about no confidence in Humza Yousaf as first minister. If he were to lose, he might feel honour bound to resign, but he could in theory just ignore it.

The Labour one is a no confidence motion in the Scottish government. And if a no confidence vote in the government passes, the first minister and all other ministers are required to resign. The parliament then has 28 days to elect a new first minister, by a simple majority. If it cannot do that, parliament is dissolved and an early election is held.

Explaining his party’s move, Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said:

Scottish Labour has no confidence in Humza Yousaf or this SNP Government, that is why we are laying a motion today to this effect to say that the parliament has no confidence in the Scottish government.

It is for the people of Scotland to decide who is first minister, not just a group of SNP members.

Removing Humza Yousaf alone will not deliver the change we need, we need to get rid of the entire SNP government which has left almost one in six Scots on an NHS waiting list, public finances in chaos and public services at breaking point.

The people of Scotland deserve a fresh start, this can only come with a Scottish election.

Sarwar also said he thought Yousaf’s resignation was now inevitable.

It’s a matter now of when, not if, Humza Yousaf will step down as first minister.

This is from LBC’s Gina Davidson.

Stephen Flynn is viewed by some people as the most talented politician in the SNP and, in his interview on the Today programme, he was asked if he would stand for the leadership if Humza Yousaf were to resign. He replied:

I have been asked this question previously the last time there was a leadership contest in the Scottish National party, and I was very clear in my view that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be the first minister of Scotland.

I have not been dissuaded from that view since I made those comments well over a year ago, but the most important thing for me here is to get on with the job of supporting the first minister over the coming days as he fights back and he wins this vote of no confidence next week.

When it was put to him that this was not a clear no, Flynn replied:

Of course, implicit in my answer is the fact that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be first minister of Scotland. As you and all your listeners know I am a member of parliament in Westminster, I do not have the ability to be the first minister of Scotland, so I am sure people can read between the lines in that regard.

This answer seemed to leave open the possibility that, if Flynn could get elected to the Scottish parliament in a byelection, then he might be interested. But making a leadership bid contingent on this being able to happen might be very problematic.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, defended Humza Yousaf in an interview on the Today programme this morning and said that the first minister was right to abandon the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens.

Describing Yousaf as a “man of profound integrity”, he said:

I firmly believe it [ending the deal with the Greens] was the right thing to do, because the first minister wanted to reset the focus of the Scottish Government on the priorities of the Scottish people. That of course means providing jobs and opportunities for our young people, growing the economy, protecting our NHS from the worst excesses of … Westminster and dealing with the cost-of-living crisis. He was absolutely right to do that.

Flynn urged MSPs from all parties to think about the consequences of bringing down Yousaf – a move that could, in certain circumstances, lead to an early election in Scotland.

I would simply say to politicians from across the political spectrum that now is the time for cool heads, calm words, to reflect and to think about the consequences of their actions.

This remark seemed to be aimed both at both SNP and Conservative MSPs; if there were an early Scottish election, both parties would probably lose seats.

Flynn said he spoke to Yousaf last night and found him in a '“reflective” mood, but also determined “to come out fighting because he believes in what he says”.

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, has cancelled a planned speech at Strathclyde University as he battles for his political life, PA Media reports.

Yousaf was due to speak about the labour strategy in an independent Scotland, take part in a Q&A session and take questions from the press. But a source close to the first minister confirmed to PA this morning the event had been cancelled.

Given the reception Yousaf got from journalists when he held a press conference yesterday, this decision is not surprising.

The Alba MSP Ash Regan has now published on X the text of her letter to Humza Yousaf suggesting what he needs to do to secure her support in the no confidence vote next week.

As well as asking for assurances relating to the rights of women and “competent governance”, she is asking Yousaf to support her proposed Scottish parliament powers referendum bill. This is a reference to an Alba party plan to get round the fact that Westminster can stop the Scottish government holding a referendum on independence by instead getting the Scottish government to hold a referendum on whether it should have the power to hold an independence referendum. Alba believes Westminster would not be able to stop such a vote.

Good morning. A week today many of the results from the local elections will be in, the Conservatives are expected to be doing very badly and Rishi Sunak’s leadership will be on the line. Many Tory think Sunak could be facing a no confidence vote within days.

And so it must be some relief in Downing Street that there is another political leader in the UK in even more trouble than Sunak. Humza Yousaf, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, is facing an actual no confidence vote next week, not just a hypothetical one, and, as Severin Carrell explains in our overnight story, there is a real chance he could be out of his job within days.

To win the no confidence vote, Yousaf needs to secure the support of Ash Regan, a former SNP MSP who came third in the leadership contest Yousaf won last year and who subsequently defected to Alba, Alex Salmond’s party. Alba is a bit more aggressively pro-independence than the SNP, and more socially conservative (or less “woke”, as critics of the SNP might say).

Late last night, in an interview with the BBC’s World Tonight, Regan gave her first proper indication of what Yousaf will need to do to secure her vote. She told the programme:

I have written to the first minister today with a number of issues that I’ve raised with him on progress made towards independence, on how he will defend the rights of women and children and a return to competent governance.

My vote will depend on really what Humza comes back with in response to my letter.

I’m not setting out specific demands as such, I’m putting the ball into Humza’s court for him to come back to me and explain to me how he will make progress in a couple of these areas, particularly around the return to a competent government.

She said the SNP used to be a competent government. But she went on:

Unfortunately it has lost its focus over the last few years, it has gone down pursuing some policies that are not popular with the public, many of those were policies that really stemmed from the coalition agreement with the Green party.

On the basis of this interview, it does not seem impossible to imagine Yousaf saying or doing enough to secure her vote. Yousaf is scheduled to be giving a speech later, so we may hear more from him on this as the day goes on.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: MPs debate private members bill, starting with one introduced by Maria Miller requiring the government to give higher diplomatic status to the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

9.45am: Angela van den Bogard, a former Post Office executive, resumes giving evidence to the Post Office Horizon inquiry.

Morning: Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, are on a visit in the north-east of England highlighting cost of living issues. They are giving interviews. Rishi Sunak is visiting a factory in Hertfordshire, but he is not expected to speak to reporters.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, is due to give a speech at Strathclyde University.

And David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is in Mongolia, on the final day of his tour of Central Asia.

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