Days after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Egypt was already prepared to fend off what they viewed as a national security threat: the influx of hundreds of thousands of Gazan refugees.
Israel had not even sent ground troops into Gaza, let alone laid waste to the territory, when Egyptian officials were already putting out a clear message to reporters that “taking Palestinians from Gaza is not on the table”.
Now that President Trump has suggested the territory should be cleared of its residents, primarily to neighbouring Arab states, the Egyptians’ pre-emptive concern is more relevant than ever.
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Since the latest war began there has been some debate in Cairo on what it would take for President Sisi to agree to host Palestinians from Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, had been pushing the idea for months before Trump adopted it. Some argued that offering to pay off Egypt’s massive foreign debt might be enough to sway them, along with other financial incentives.
But Egypt’s security hawks have drawn a line and they are unlikely to embrace a plan they believe could destabilise their country. Jordan, another target of Trump’s pressure, shares their fears.
“For both Egypt and Jordan, even if they are authoritarian states, public opinion really matters,” said Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
“Since the war in Gaza there has been a re-politicisation of society, particularly over the issue of sovereignty and self-determination for Palestinians. This has the potential to spill over in both of these countries.
“When war in Gaza broke out, protests were permitted in Egypt. Those protests were quickly politicised against Sisi and protesters not only chanted in support of Palestinians but also against their own economic deprivations.”
While both countries have benefited from US aid, with more than $2 billion of largely military aid between them each year, Trump’s threat to rethink that support is unlikely to sway them. They will simply look to the rich Gulf countries or other foreign benefactors to bail them out.
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China is a key investor in the region. Trade between China and the Middle East and North Africa reached $368 billion in 2022, compared with $144 billion between the US and the region over the same period. Russia has also historically been a key partner for Egypt, though its influence has declined in recent years.
“I don’t think this is a moment for financially constrained Russia to swan into Egypt. But it does open the door for China, which has large economic interests in Egypt and has a comprehensive strategic partnership with Egypt,” Vakil said.
Moreover, both Egypt and Jordan have to contend with populations that are already squeezed by economic crises and the rising cost of living, and harbour a deep-seated loathing of Israel.
For Jordan, a key security and intelligence partner for Israel and the West that already hosts two million Palestinian refugees, the question of accepting more is an “existential issue”, Vakil said.
Indeed, if Palestinians were expelled from Gaza, rare region-wide protests could erupt. “You could definitely see protests spread across the Arab world, including to countries that don’t have a history of protest like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. That would be quite astonishing,” she added.
In Egypt, its military rulers will be also be mindful of the fact that they only recently quashed Islamist domestic opposition, not to mention an Islamic State insurgency in Sinai, which neighbours Gaza.
Sisi fears that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria by Islamist rebels will revive his own opposition. He can little afford to be seen as aiding Israel in ridding Gaza of more Palestinians, after waves of refugees fled to Egypt during previous wars in 1948 and 1967.
Egypt has sent its foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, to Washington to make that point. In 2013, Abdelatty had been the ministry’s spokesman. At the time he and other Egyptian officials said that they were prepared to withstand the partial suspension in US military aid ordered by Barack Obama after Mohamed Morsi was overthrown and a violent crackdown on his supporters ensued.
They were right: the US was forced to back down eventually, while Egypt went to Russia and other countries to meet the shortfall in the meantime. Cairo will be weighing its options again should Trump choose to suspend aid.
Above all, as Trump meets Arab leaders, they will be hoping the president simply changes his mind.
