The final week of the season is set to remain nervy for Hull City after a mixed bag over the Easter weekend saw the Tigers lose at Swansea City but come back to beat Preston North End on Monday.
According to the bookmakers, City remain odds on to stay in the Championship and secure enough points in the next two games to secure safety, despite their probability of going down increasing from nine per cent to 13.
Victory over Derby County on Saturday would ensure the Tigers are safe from any threat of going down on the final day at Portsmouth, but the Rams' form and that of Luton Town have ensured the battle for survival remains fierce.
Should Coventry City win at Luton in Saturday's early kick-off then a point would be enough for the Tigers, but given it's their last home game of the season, Ruben Selles' men will surely be determined to go out with a bang and ensure there's nothing left to chance.
Betfred suggests that despite Luton's impressive upturn in form, which has seen Matt Bloomfield's men claim five wins in their last 10 games, and back-to-back successes over Easter, it will be the Hatters who join Plymouth Argyle and Cardiff City in League One next term.
Here's the odds going into the penultimate weekend....
Plymouth Argyle - 1/33 from 1/16 (97.1% probability from 94.1%)
Cardiff City - 1/7 from 1/2 (87.5% probability from 66.7%)
Luton Town - 8/15 from 1/4 (65.2% probability from 80%)
Derby County - 11/8 (42.1% probability)
Hull City - 13/2 from 10/1 (13.3% probability from 9.1%)
Oxford United - 16/1 from 12/1 (5.9% probability from 7.7%)
Preston North End - 40/1 from 200/1 (2.4% probability from 0.5%)
Stoke City - 100/1 from 12/1 (1% probability from 7.7%)
Portsmouth - 250/1 from 12/1 (0.4% probability from 7.7%)
“The action over the Easter bank holiday weekend wasn’t able to give us a crystal clear indication of which three sides will be playing in League One next season, with nine teams still facing the possibility of relegation with two games to go," Betfred’s Robert Ford told Hull Live.
“Cardiff City were the only side that failed to pick up three points across Friday and Monday. Aaron Ramsey was close to victory in his first game as manager on Monday, but a 79th minute equaliser for Oxford United has resulted in The Bluebirds’s odds of relegation falling from 1/2 before the bank holiday to 1/7 and now they have a 87.5% probability of relegation, growing by 20.8% across a five day period.
“Three straight defeats for Preston North End has seen their odds plummet from 200/1 to 40/1, but a victory at home against bottom side Plymouth Argyle at the weekend would secure their safety. Plymouth’s victory against play-off hopefuls Coventry City on Monday was not enough to get them off the bottom of the table. They’re three points adrift with two games to go and this has been reflected in our market as they’ve been cut to 1/33 from 1/16.
“A crucial victory at fellow strugglers Derby County and an impressive 3-1 triumph over 5th-placed Bristol City has given Luton Town a much improved chance of survival and their probability for the drop has been cut by 14.8% from 80% as they move into a new price of 8/15 from 1/4. Despite defeat to Luton Town, Derby’s win on the road at West Brom has seen their price remain at 11/8 as they avoided falling into the bottom three. Luton’s significantly worse goal difference could end up being a big factor going into the final two games.
“Two Joe Gelhardt penalties provided Hull City with a comeback against Preston North End on Monday and put an end to their run of three games without a victory. Their defeat at Swansea City on Friday however has seen their 10/1 price from Friday morning cut to 13/2, but this has only resulted in a slight increase in their probability as it’s grown to 13.3% from 9.1%.
“Oxford United’s priceless draw at Cardiff City has seen them move into 16s from 12s, as Stoke City move into 100s from 12/1 as they’re one win away from survival. Two consecutive wins have seen Portsmouth leap from 12/1 to 250/1 and now they need a single point to survive.”