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17

Sunset Market Commentary

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Markets European markets today enjoyed some kind of a risk-on catch up move. A record close of the US S&P 500 above the 5500 mark yesterday apparently also inspired European investors (Eurostoxx 50 +1.3%). On French/intra-EMU bond markets,…

Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Extends Weakness after Downbeat ADP Data

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The dollar index fell to one week low on Thursday, extending weakness into second consecutive day, after being pressured by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, while weaker than expected ADP private sector payrolls report further soured…

AUD/USD Daily Report

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6644; (P) 0.6657; (R1) 0.6681; More... AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 finally resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0…

US ISM services falls sharply to 48.8, lowest in four years

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US ISM Services PMI fell sharply from 53.8 to 48.8 in June, well below expectation of 52.5. That’s also the worst reading in four years. Looking at some details, business activity/production fell sharply from 61.2 to 49.6. New orders fell…

16

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.22; (P) 161.52; (R1) 161.76; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160…

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9026; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9052; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that…

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0721; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More…. EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0665 resumed by breaking 1.0775 minor resistance today. Current development suggests that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the…

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2612 resumes today and the break of 1.2705 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2859 has completed. More importantly, rise from 1.2298 is not over.…

Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events

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Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week,…

15

US jobless claims rises to 238k vs exp 235k

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US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 238k in the week ending June 29, slightly above expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 239k. Continuing claims rose 26k to 1858k in the week ending June 22, highest…

US ADP jobs grow 150k, solid but not broad-based

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US ADP private employment grew 150k in June, below expectation of 158k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 14k while service-providing jobs rose 136k. By establishment size, small companies added 5k jobs, medium companies added 88k,…

14

Gold Retains Positive Attitude

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Gold picks up steam towards a key resistance region ahead of US Independence day Short-term bias is positive, but an extension above 2,352 is necessary ISM services PMI, ADP employment, FOMC meeting minutes on the agenda Gold bulls…

AUD/USD Shrugs as Australian Retail Sales Jump

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The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary…

EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Regain Control and Look for Retest of Key Barriers

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EURUSD regained traction on Wednesday after moving within wide swings but without direction in past two days. Fresh strength looks for retest of pivotal barriers at 1.0768/71 (55DMA/daily cloud base), which capped Monday’s attack.…

GBP/USD Outlook: Lifted Further by Better Than Expected UK PMI Data

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Cable advances for the second consecutive day, underpinned by better than expected UK services PMI (dominant sector of the economy) released earlier today. Fresh bulls cracked psychological 1.2700 barrier and nearby pivotal Fibo resistance…

12

AUD/USD Sees Uptick Amidst Mixed Sentiment

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AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market. The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by…

Eurozone PPI falls -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May

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Eurozone PPI fell -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, -4.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods, 0.1% for capital goods, and 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods.…

XAU/USD outlook: Gold Price Rises Ahead of Key Economic Data But Still Holding Within Broader Range

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Gold price rose during early trading on Wednesday, after being stuck within a narrow congestion in past three days. Fresh strength hit the highest in almost two weeks, though the wider picture shows the price moving within larger range (…

Crypto Stays Under Pressure

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Market picture The pressure on the crypto has been more sustained than on the stocks. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto cap has fallen by 2.6%, with most of the downward momentum starting in the US session. The stock market, on the…

11

UK PMI services finalized at 52.1, growth slows amid election uncertainty

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UK PMI Services index was finalized at 52.1 in June, down from May’s 52.9, marking the slowest growth rate since November of last year. PMI Composite also fell to 52.3, from the previous month’s 53.0, a six-month low. Joe Hayes, Principal…

Eurozone PMI services finalized at 52.8, composite at 50.9

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In June, Eurozone PMI Services index was finalized at 52.8, slightly down from May’s 53.2. PMI Composite also dropped, finalizing at 50.9 compared to the previous month’s 52.2. The countries ranked by Composite PMI Output Index are as…

Gold Price Prospects for H2

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As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart: → Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange; → Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%. What are the gold price forecasts for the…

S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis

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As shown by the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Since the beginning of 2023, the price has been moving in an upward blue channel. To date, the increase has been over 42%; → Since the start of 2024, the price has…

NZDUSD Meets Support at 38.2% Fibo

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NZDUSD is in a steady decline since early June Completion of golden cross fails to trigger a recovery Oscillators are tilted to the bearish side NZDUSD had been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April,…

Cable Ready to Correct Deeper Going into UK Elections

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Cable is turning south for the last few weeks, as price stopped at the trendline connected from 2023 high so we certainly should not be surprised by current retracement. Break below the channel support also confirms a corrective phase for…

10

USDJPY Flies to Another Higher High at 161.92

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USDJPY continues its ascending move Technical oscillators still ticking up USDJPY is creating higher highs, unlocking a fresh 38-year high of 161.92 earlier in the day. The rebound off 154.50 is still in progress, while the technical…

09

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0721; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0772) will argue that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Further rise…

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.22; (P) 161.52; (R1) 161.76; More… USD/JPY’s rally continues today despite some loss of upside momentum. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to…

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 1.2705 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.2859 has completed,…

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9026; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9052; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside as rise from 0.8825 is in progress. Fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Sustained trading…