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17

Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Extends Weakness after Downbeat ADP Data

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The dollar index fell to one week low on Thursday, extending weakness into second consecutive day, after being pressured by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, while weaker than expected ADP private sector payrolls report further soured…

US ISM services falls sharply to 48.8, lowest in four years

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US ISM Services PMI fell sharply from 53.8 to 48.8 in June, well below expectation of 52.5. That’s also the worst reading in four years. Looking at some details, business activity/production fell sharply from 61.2 to 49.6. New orders fell…

16

Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events

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Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week,…

15

US jobless claims rises to 238k vs exp 235k

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US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 238k in the week ending June 29, slightly above expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 239k. Continuing claims rose 26k to 1858k in the week ending June 22, highest…

US ADP jobs grow 150k, solid but not broad-based

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US ADP private employment grew 150k in June, below expectation of 158k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 14k while service-providing jobs rose 136k. By establishment size, small companies added 5k jobs, medium companies added 88k,…

14

AUD/USD Shrugs as Australian Retail Sales Jump

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The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary…

GBP/USD Outlook: Lifted Further by Better Than Expected UK PMI Data

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Cable advances for the second consecutive day, underpinned by better than expected UK services PMI (dominant sector of the economy) released earlier today. Fresh bulls cracked psychological 1.2700 barrier and nearby pivotal Fibo resistance…

12

AUD/USD Sees Uptick Amidst Mixed Sentiment

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AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market. The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by…

Eurozone PPI falls -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May

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Eurozone PPI fell -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, -4.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods, 0.1% for capital goods, and 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods.…

XAU/USD outlook: Gold Price Rises Ahead of Key Economic Data But Still Holding Within Broader Range

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Gold price rose during early trading on Wednesday, after being stuck within a narrow congestion in past three days. Fresh strength hit the highest in almost two weeks, though the wider picture shows the price moving within larger range (…

11

UK PMI services finalized at 52.1, growth slows amid election uncertainty

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UK PMI Services index was finalized at 52.1 in June, down from May’s 52.9, marking the slowest growth rate since November of last year. PMI Composite also fell to 52.3, from the previous month’s 53.0, a six-month low. Joe Hayes, Principal…

Eurozone PMI services finalized at 52.8, composite at 50.9

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In June, Eurozone PMI Services index was finalized at 52.8, slightly down from May’s 53.2. PMI Composite also dropped, finalizing at 50.9 compared to the previous month’s 52.2. The countries ranked by Composite PMI Output Index are as…

S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis

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As shown by the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Since the beginning of 2023, the price has been moving in an upward blue channel. To date, the increase has been over 42%; → Since the start of 2024, the price has…

10

USDJPY Flies to Another Higher High at 161.92

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USDJPY continues its ascending move Technical oscillators still ticking up USDJPY is creating higher highs, unlocking a fresh 38-year high of 161.92 earlier in the day. The rebound off 154.50 is still in progress, while the technical…

09

FOMC June Meeting Minutes Will Offer Some Insights into the Debate

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Markets Markets took it slow yesterday. Neither consensus-matching European CPI (0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) nor the policy panel at Sintra featuring ECB president Lagarde and Fed chair Powell really moved the needle. The latter said that…

Fed Doves in Charge Before Friday’s All-Important Official Jobs Data

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Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell said that the Fed has made ‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation and investors didn’t need more to jump back on the back of a bull. The S&P500 closed at a record high again, while Nasdaq 100…

08

Yen Falls Again: How Much Lower Could It Go?

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Yen’s renewed selloff captured some attention in the otherwise subdued Asian session today. With no new comments from Japanese authorities, market participants are left to speculate on when and where the next intervention might occur. A…

07

China’s Caixin PMI services drops sharply to 51.2

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China’s Caixin PMI Services fell sharply to 51.2 in June, down from 54.0 in May, significantly below expectations of 53.4. This marks the lowest reading since October 2023 but remains in expansionary territory for the 18th consecutive…

06

Japan’s PMI services finalized at 49.3, ending 21-month growth streak

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Japan’s PMI Services was finalized at 49.4 in June, a significant drop from May’s 53.8, ending a 21-month growth sequence. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.7, down from May’s 52.6, marking the first contraction in seven months. Trevor…

Australia’s retail sales rises 0.6% mom on sales events boost

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Australia’s retail sales turnover increased by 0.6% mom to AUD 35.94B in May, well above expectation of 0.3% mom. On an annual basis, sales grew by 1.5% yoy. Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, highlighted the influence of early…

05

AUD/USD Range-Bound: What Could Spark Fresh Increase?

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Key Highlights AUD/USD is trading in a range below the 0.6700 resistance. A key rising channel is forming with support at 0.6625 on the 4-hour chart. Oil prices extended gains and approached the $85.00 resistance. The US ISM Manufacturing…

Tuesday, Jul 2

18

Eurozone: Inflation Deceleration Stalled

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According to the Eurostat Flash estimate, the euro area CPI stood at 2.5% y/y, hovering between 2.4% and 2.6% for the past five months. There has been no apparent slowing since November when the rate first touched 2.4%. Core CPI maintained…

17

Fed’s Powell: We’re getting back on disinflation path

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At the ECB forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “quite a big of progress” made in reducing inflation toward 2% target. He also acknowledged the recent inflation readings, stating, “The last reading and the one before it, to a…

WTI Oil Outlook: Price Rises Above $84 for the First Time in Over Two Months

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WTI oil price rose to nine-week high on Tuesday, in extension of strong Monday’s strong rally (up almost 2.5% for the day). Increased demand due to summer driving season and persisting supply fears on heated geopolitical situation inflate…

16

GBPCAD Uptrend Intact After Latest Correction

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GBPCAD bounces off uptrend line But strength of rebound is in question 20-day SMA is nearest challenge for the bulls GBPCAD has rebounded back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after a 2% correction in June took the price below…

Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems

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The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the…

15

Dollar Struggles to Keep Momentum in Indecisive Markets

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In the forex market, clear weakness of Yen, Swiss Franc, and Kiwi contrasts with a broader sense of indecision elsewhere. Dollar’s rally attempt quickly lost momentum as it struggled to break through near-term resistance levels against…

14

Fed’s Goolsbee suggests rate cuts if inflation declines further

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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has suggested that Fed should consider cutting interest rates if inflation continues its downward trajectory towards the 2% target. He emphasized the importance of adjusting monetary policy to align…

13

Australian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales

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The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6649 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Australian retail sales expected to improve Australian consumers have been in frugal mood and have…

UK 100 Index Experiences Pre-election Decline

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UK 100 index erases June’s recovery attempt as the UK election looms A break below 8,055 could worsen short-term outlook The UK 100 stock index (cash) continues to suffer for the sixth consecutive trading day, extending its downleg…